Goldman Sachs: China's GDP will grow to 5.5% in 2023

Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have raised the forecast of China's economic growth for 2023 to 5.5% from the previously expected 5.2%. The reason for the change in the forecast was stronger than expected data on the dynamics of GDP for the fourth quarter of last year.

Thus, according to the State Statistical Office of China, the Chinese economy in October-December 2022 grew by 2.9% compared to the same period of the previous year. The pace of GDP growth slowed down from 3.9% in the third quarter, but exceeded experts' expectations. On average, analysts expected an increase of only 1.8%.

Data on retail sales, industrial production and unemployment in China for December also turned out to be better than market forecasts. Which surprised experts enough, who expected a decrease in indicators against the background of an increase in the incidence of COVID-19 in the country at the end of the year and the presence of a large-scale problem of labor shortage.

Analysts believe that the growth of GDP in the fourth quarter was most likely facilitated by a one-time jump in demand for medicines and medical equipment.