The British pound declined against the US dollar against the background of the general strengthening of the US currency, UBS analysts say. At the same time, the pound lagged slightly behind other European currencies, which led to a slight increase in the EUR/GBP pair above the 0.86 level. The bank's experts report that the latest macroeconomic data from the UK indicate a slowdown in economic growth and a weakening labor market. However, high inflation and steady wage growth constrain the Bank of England's ability to quickly ease monetary policy. UBS expects the Bank of England to cut the rate only twice by 25 basis points by the end of the year, which is in line with market expectations. Against the background of persistent interest rate differentials, the pound remains attractive for a carry trade, especially in pairs with low-yield currencies such as the Swiss franc. The investment bank's analysts still recommend the GBP/CHF carry trade strategy, and the pound's fall below 1.33 is described as an opportunity to hedge dollar positions. In the medium term, the bank forecasts the GBP/USD pair to rise to 1.40 by mid-2026. At the same time, it is expected that the potential for further growth of the pound is limited. In the short term, UBS suggests selling GBP/NOK with growth above 13.90, and also draws attention to the possible strengthening of the Norwegian and Swedish krona against the pound.
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