"'We won,' 'we don't need the strait,' 'I don't want a ceasefire'" — behind these contradictory statements by the US president on Iran is an attempt to convince markets that a physical closure of one of the world's key arteries matters little to the United States. Urging NATO, South Korea, and Japan to "show courage" and take responsibility for the strait is a neat way of admitting Washington cannot (or will not) guarantee shipping security alone, despite "endless munitions." The endgame of the current Trump doctrine looks like the US withdrawing from guarding the Strait of Hormuz, with patrols to be carried out by the consuming nations themselves.
Calling the operation a "limited military action," he tries to lure allies into a region he has failed to stabilize over three weeks. This marks a radical change in the US global role. Where Washington once guaranteed freedom of navigation, it is shifting to an "adviser-on-demand" mode. For the global economy, this implies a sharp rise in insurance premia and the militarisation of trade routes. Trump hopes to close the Iran case as "won," leaving the clean-up of the chokepoint to Seoul, Tokyo, and Brussels. After three weeks of the conflict, the US not only fails to look victorious but finds itself trapped. The trajectory of the conflict exposes an uncomfortable truth: classic US military power struggles with asymmetric pressure.
If Trump's claim that Iran's military-industrial complex is destroyed were true, a reasonable question arises: why is outflow from the Strait of Hormuz 15–20 times below normal? The reality is that the strait is open only for "episodic" passages in China's and India's interests (1.0–1.5m b/d). Tehran has turned the war into a routinized pressure campaign that the global economy cannot afford. A worrying paradox emerges: the number of Iranian launches has fallen (rocket launches down 16-fold, drones down 4-fold compared with the first days), yet the number of successfully struck sensitive targets has multiplied. Defensive effectiveness is falling precisely as Iran shifts to precision strikes on the energy system's "pain points." Trump's "Mission Accomplished" on Twitter does nothing to keep drones off Ras Laffan.
By the end of the third week, it is clear that US and Israeli air dominance over Iran is conditional. Iran's dispersed, often subterranean military assets demonstrate remarkable resilience. History suggests that suppressing such a capability requires sustained intensity of strikes over six months, not twenty days. As of 22 March, Washington's strategic position looks bleak:
Yet this scheme has a fatal flaw — time. Timing works against the White House. Every day the strait remains blocked it burns US positions rather than strengthens them. Trump tries to tell markets "solve the strait yourselves," but reality is neither dominance in the Gulf nor protection by allies has been achieved. A hasty "jump off" now is not a victory but a rhetorical manoeuvre to hide a cascade collapse of the global system.
The media fixate on petrol prices, but the real infarct is in cross-industry links.
The VIX fear index jumped by 20%, reflecting a total loss of bearings. A headline about troop movements slams equities and gold; a headline about "objectives met" drags oil sharply down. Traders are forced to trade the Oval Office's mood rather than fundamentals, making long-term planning impossible. The surreal capstone: the US issued a general licence to export Iranian oil through 19 April 2026. It is effectively capitulation to a price shock. After years of words about a "rogue regime" and "total destruction," Washington is forced to beg for the very oil it tried to block. This temporary licence is a "band-aid" on a severed artery. Trump hopes Iranian barrels will tamp down prices before electoral wrath becomes unmanageable.
But the licence runs only a month, underscoring the ad-hoc, panicked nature of White House decisions. Speaker Mike Johnson tries to save face, saying the "initial mission is effectively accomplished." In his telling, the fleet and Iran's missiles are neutralized. Yet even in that optimistic spin the truth leaks out: Iran's capacity to threaten the Strait "prolongs the matter a bit." That "bit" costs the world economy trillions. Allies have demonstratively ignored Trump's calls for help, leaving the US alone to mop up the consequences of this "pacification."
Johnson's statement is an attempt to prep markets for a victory declaration and hasty withdrawal before the bill for war exceeds the value of the entire US economy. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a decision that a month ago would have seemed unthinkable: the US will temporarily lift restrictions to bring some 140m barrels of Iranian oil to market. The official line is "price-containing" and a continuation of "Operation Epic Fury" by other means. Bessent insists Tehran will not see the proceeds — revenues will be "strictly controlled."
However, markets read this as an act of desperation. While Trump promises a "winding down" of efforts, reality dictates otherwise: new landing ships are en route to the region and Iraq has declared force majeure on all fields. The US economic landscape is becoming a theatre where tech is sacrificed to oil:
Trump senses the ground slipping and redirects his fury inward. His Truth Social post calling the Democratic Party "a worse enemy than Iran" is an attempt to rally the MAGA base in the face of a potential political catastrophe. Kalshi odds are brutal: the implied probability of Trump's impeachment this year has jumped to 72%. Investors and political actors increasingly read current chaos as weakness rather than strength. "Epic Fury" looks more like an epic failure. Three weeks of war have cost US taxpayers about $27bn. Washington is trying to find real levers of power in Tehran but so far finds only emptiness.
Global central banks, meanwhile, are bracing for an "inflation shock," and traders are piling into bets on higher rates — a dynamic that will extinguish hopes of a soft landing for the economy. Last week was a watershed for global regulators. Of the eight largest central banks (from the Fed to the BOJ), only the Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates. Yet the real drama played out in market prices: markets instantly repriced inflation risks and the prospect of near-term rate cuts is dead. Monetary policy is impotent in the face of a physical resources shortfall. This is the market's cry that inflation has arrived in earnest and may be here to stay.
Central banks are boxed in: they must keep policy tight, while geopolitics burns their macro models. The equity sell-off has taken on avalanche dynamics. The Dow Jones has plunged to 45,577 — perilously close to the psychological abyss at 45,000. The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 confirmed downside breaks, officially opening a phase of deep correction. The most shocking move was in gold — the safe-haven asset collapsed by more than 10%, closing below $4,500. This is a classic sign of "liquidating the last refuge": investors sell gold not because they distrust it but because they need cash to cover losses elsewhere.
Currency markets are behaving oddly in this chaos:
The Defense Intelligence Agency's forecast is brutal: a functional closure of the Strait of Hormuz could last up to six months. This is long enough to inflict irreversible supply shocks. Oil markets have already priced in a persistent risk premium. Brent has stabilized above $110, but this is just a pause. Analysts warn that a break above $120 would open the road to $160. We are in a situation where each additional day of war exponentially increases the cost of rebuilding infrastructure, turning a temporary crisis into years of energy scarcity. The central bank has effectively signed off on the view that inflation has entered a "dangerous phase."
If earlier oil spikes from the Gulf were portrayed as temporary distortions, Frankfurt has now officially recognized this as a structural threat to price stability. Christine Lagarde can no longer hide behind old manuals — the reality of 2026 requires a new monetary policy architecture. ECB math has collided with market physics. The regulator's base case assumed an oil peak near $90 and inflation at 2.6% (versus the cosy December 1.9%). That scenario was obsolete before publication. Today, Brent comfortably trades in the $100–120 range, turning the "base-case" forecasts into scrap.
Investors' attention has turned to what was once labeled the "adverse scenario." Today, it is no longer hypothetical — it is the picture of now. Under this scenario, euro-area inflation rises to 3.5% in 2026 and growth collapses. The scariest realization: these outcomes are no longer extreme outliers; they mirror current market conditions. The ECB faces a reality in which "Plan B" has become the only feasible "Plan A." Europe is entering a period of prolonged inflation and weak growth, where monetary tools are powerless against a blocked Strait of Hormuz and burning refineries.
23 March, 12:00 / Eurozone / ** / Wage growth in Q4 / prev.: 2.5% / actual: 2.7% / forecast: 2.6% / EUR/USD – down
The harmonized wage index in the euro area rose to 2.7% year-on-year in Q4 2026, up from 2.5% in the prior period. The current reading is the highest in about 18 months and exceeds the long-run average of 2.31%. The acceleration in pay growth signals persistent inflationary pressure from the labor market despite the broader macro stabilization since the 2024 peaks. Wage dynamics remain an important indicator when assessing future central bank policy moves. If wage growth slows to the forecast 2.6% next quarter, the euro is likely to weaken versus the dollar.
23 March, 15:30 / USA / ** / Chicago Fed National Activity Index, February / prev.: -0.21 / actual: 0.18 / forecast: 0.27 / USDX (6-currency index) – up
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to 0.18 in February 2026 from -0.21 in December, hitting the highest level in a year and signaling a pickup in US economic activity at the start of the year. The improvement was driven mainly by:
Meanwhile, the consumption and housing components remained neutral. The positive shift points to an easing of the short-term drag in manufacturing. If the index rises to the forecast 0.27 in March, the US dollar index should strengthen.
23 March / USA / *** / Construction spending growth in January (m/m) / prev.: -0.2% / actual: 0.3% / forecast: 0.1% / USDX – down
US construction spending rose 0.3% in December 2025, interrupting a three-month decline. The rise was entirely private-sector driven, with a 1.5% increase in residential construction led by new single-family projects offsetting weakness in non-residential investment. Public spending continued to fall, both in housing and infrastructure. Overall for 2025, the sector showed moderate contraction amid high borrowing costs. If the January reading confirms the 0.1% forecast, the US dollar index will likely be pressured lower.
23 March, 18:00 / Eurozone / ** / Consumer confidence index, March / prev.: -12.4 / actual: -12.2 / forecast: -15.0 / EUR/USD – down
The euro-area consumer confidence index stood at -12.2 in February, the highest reading since the end of 2024. The improvement reflects a more optimistic public view of the economic outlook. Nevertheless, consumers remain cautious when assessing:
Stable financial expectations suggest households are gradually adapting to current conditions despite ongoing uncertainty. If the March index falls to the forecast -15.0, the euro is likely to weaken.
24 March, 01:00 / Australia / ** / S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, March / prev.: 52.3 / actual: 51.0 / forecast: 51.6 / AUD/USD – up
Australia's S&P Global manufacturing PMI fell to 51.0 in February 2026 from 52.3 in January. The reading hit a four-month low, reflecting a slowdown in the expansion of the country's industrial sector. A weaker inflow of new orders from both domestic and external markets led to a modest reduction in output and a drawdown of inventories amid softer business sentiment. Although inflationary pressures eased somewhat, supply chain conditions continue to deteriorate, constraining the overall manufacturing momentum. If the March PMI rises to the forecast 51.6, the Australian dollar should strengthen.
24 March, 02:30 / Japan / *** / Headline CPI, February / prev.: 2.1% / actual: 1.5% / forecast: 1.3% / USD/JPY – up
Japan's year-on-year CPI slowed to 1.5% in January from 2.1% in the prior month. The move to a spring-2022 low was driven by slower price increases in food, transport, and household goods, as well as by continued negative energy price dynamics supported by government subsidies for electricity and gas. Core inflation eased to the BOJ's 2.0% "target" level, the lowest in two years. Although prices in communications and apparel accelerated, the overall inflation picture points to cooling consumer demand. If February inflation falls to the forecast 1.3%, the dollar/yen rate is likely to rise.
24 March, 03:30 / Japan / *** / S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, March / prev.: 51.5 / actual: 53.0 / forecast: 52.9 / USD/JPY – up
Japan's manufacturing PMI rose to 53.0 in February from 51.5 in January, marking the strongest recovery in four years. The uptick was underpinned by:
Employment in the sector is rising for a fifteenth consecutive month despite mounting cost pressures on raw materials and transport. Companies remain highly optimistic, citing new product launches and a rebound in global demand. If the March PMI confirms at the forecast 52.9, the yen may weaken.
24 March, 08:00 / Eurozone / ** / Passenger car registrations, February / prev.: 5.8% / actual: -3.9% / forecast: -6.0% / EUR/USD – down
New passenger-car registrations in the EU fell by 3.9% year-on-year in January 2026 after a 5.8% rise the prior month. The negative reading was the first since last summer and reflected sharp declines in the largest markets:
Despite the broader weakness, the electric vehicle segment grew by 24.2%, increasing its market share to 19.3%. The early-year data point to a temporary cooling in demand for conventional cars after a moderate expansion in 2025. If February registrations drop to the forecast -6.0%, the euro would be pressured.
24 March, 11:30 / Germany / *** / HCOB Manufacturing PMI, March / prev.: 49.1 / actual: 50.9 / forecast: 49.8 / EUR/USD – down
Germany's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9 in February from 49.1 in January, marking a return to expansion for the first time in three and a half years. The improvement was driven by higher output and an increase in new orders. Business sentiment was supported by:
Despite upward pressure on manufacturing costs, business expectations hit their highest level since early 2022 amid firmer domestic demand. A fall in the March PMI to the forecast 49.8 would weigh on the euro.
24 March, 12:00 / Eurozone / *** / S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, March / prev.: 49.5 / actual: 50.8 / forecast: 49.55 / EUR/USD – down
The euro-area manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.8 in February from 49.5 in January — the strongest improvement in the sector since summer 2022 on the back of:
Employment is still being reduced, but purchasing activity has effectively stabilized. Input cost inflation is at a three-year high, driving the fastest output price growth since March 2023. Producer confidence sits at a four-year high as firms anticipate further demand recovery. If the March reading holds at the forecast 49.55, the euro would weaken versus the dollar.
24 March, 12:30 / United Kingdom / *** / S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, March / prev.: 51.8 / actual: 51.7 / forecast: 51.1 / GBP/USD – down
The UK manufacturing PMI stood at 51.7 in February versus 51.8 the month before, indicating expansion and with output growth at a 1.5-year high. The improvement came with accelerating input cost inflation due to higher metals and energy prices, pushing purchase prices up for a third consecutive month. Supply chains remain strained, but the majority of manufacturers retain an optimistic outlook for the year ahead. If the March PMI falls to the forecast 51.1, sterling would be expected to weaken.
24 March, 14:00 / United Kingdom / ** / CBI Retail Sales Balance, March / prev.: -17 / actual: -43 / forecast: -40 / GBP/USD – up
The CBI retail sales balance plunged to -43 in February from -17 in January, significantly worse than market expectations and reflecting a protracted retail slump since mid-2023. With consumer confidence at record lows, firms are cutting:
Despite price increases and a surge in online sales, the sector displays weak demand and cautious inventory management. If the March balance reaches the forecast -40, the pound sterling could strengthen.
24 March, 15:15 / USA / ** / ADP private payrolls, weekly change / prev.: 14.75k / actual: 9.0k / forecast: – / USDX (6-currency index) – volatile
Average weekly private sector hiring slowed to 9.0k in February, according to ADP, a marked drop from earlier robust job gains. The print signals a loss of momentum in private sector hiring amid evolving economic conditions. With no official consensus forecast for the series, the release may spark volatility in the US dollar index.
24 March, 15:30 / USA / ** / Nonfarm productivity, Q4 (final) / prev.: 4.2% / actual: 5.2% / forecast: 2.8% / USDX – down
US nonfarm productivity for Q4 rose by 2.8%, down from 5.2% previously, yet the outcome beat market expectations. Output increased 2.6%, while hours worked fell slightly. Manufacturing productivity fell by 1.9% due to lower output in the durable goods sector. For full-year 2025, average productivity growth was about 2.2%, reflecting a cooling relative to 2024. If the final productivity number confirms the 2.8% forecast, the US dollar index would be pressured lower.
24 March, 23:30 / USA / ** / API weekly crude inventories / prev.: -1.7m / actual: 6.6m / forecast: – / Brent – volatile
US crude oil inventories rose by 6.6 million barrels in the week to 13 March 2026, a sharp build that offset the prior week's draw and represented the largest weekly increase in three weeks amid expectations for inventory draws. At the same time, gasoline and distillate inventories fell sharply, with the rate of product drawdowns the highest since last autumn. The dynamics point to an imbalance between rising production and sustained demand for petroleum products. With no official consensus forecast available, the API print is likely to trigger volatility in Brent prices.
25 March, 03:30 / Australia / *** / Headline CPI, February / prev.: 3.4% / actual: 3.8% / forecast: 3.8% / AUD/USD – volatile
Australia's annual consumer inflation held at 3.8% in January, above market expectations and still outside the RBA's target band. A sharp 32.2% jump in electricity prices after the expiry of government discounts offset declines elsewhere, leaving broad-based price pressures across housing, apparel, and food. Monthly CPI slowed to 0.4% versus the end of last year. If February confirms the 3.8% forecast, expect volatility in AUD.
25 March, 10:00 / United Kingdom / *** / Headline CPI, February / prev.: 3.2% / actual: 3.4% / forecast: 3.0% / GBP/USD – down
UK headline CPI eased to 3.0% y/y in January from 3.4% in December, helped by cheaper fuel and food and lower utility price pressures. Core inflation fell to 3.1%, signaling gradual easing of underlying price pressures. January recorded a -0.5% m/m print that wiped out the pre-holiday rise. If February lands at the 3.0% forecast, sterling should come under pressure.
25 March, 10:00 / United Kingdom / ** / Producer price inflation, February / prev.: 3.4% / actual: 3.1% / forecast: 2.5% / GBP/USD – down
UK producer prices rose 2.5% year-on-year in January, slowing from 3.1% in December. The easing of price pressure at the factory gate to the weakest level since early summer was driven by declines in the cost of:
Despite disinflation in food and transport equipment segments, these categories remain the main drivers of factory gate inflation. Moderate rises in the prices of alcoholic beverages, metals and electronics only partially offset the broader disinflationary trend in industry. If the February print confirms the 2.5% forecast, the pound is likely to weaken.
25 March, 10:00 / United Kingdom / ** / Retail prices index, February / prev.: 4.2% / actual: 3.8% / forecast: 3.7% / GBP/USD – down
The UK retail price index rose by 3.8% year-on-year in January versus 4.2% in the prior period. On a monthly basis, the series recorded a 0.5% decline, fully offsetting the pre-holiday increase and coming in below market expectations. The retail price dynamic reflects an overall cooling in the cost of living amid a gradual stabilisation of consumer demand early in the year. A February reading at the 3.7% forecast would be negative for the pound.
25 March, 12:00 / Germany / *** / Ifo Business Climate, March / prev.: 87.6 / actual: 88.6 / forecast: 86.3 / EUR/USD – down
Germany's Ifo business-climate index rose to 88.6 in February from 87.6, the best six-month print and indicative of early signs of domestic demand-led recovery. Improvement was strongest in logistics, construction, and manufacturing and was supported by infrastructure stimulus and higher defence spending. If March softens to 86.3, the euro would be pressured.
25 March, 15:30 / USA / ** / Export prices, February / prev.: 3.4% / actual: 2.6% / forecast: 2.2% / USDX (6-currency index) – down
US export prices rose by 2.6% year-on-year in January, slowing from a 3.4% gain in December. The current pace remains above long-run averages but points to a moderation of inflationary pressure in the tradeable sector. Export price dynamics reflect stabilizing global supply chains and demand adjustment to prevailing macro conditions. This metric is an important barometer of US competitiveness. If February prints at the forecast 2.2%, the US dollar index could ease.
25 March, 17:30 / USA / ** / EIA crude stocks (weekly) / prev.: 0.661m / actual: -0.692m / forecast: 0.070m / Brent – down
US net crude imports fell by 692,000 barrels in the week to 13 March 2026. The reduction in imported crude offset the prior week's build and reflects volatile external flows and operational shifts at US refineries. The series shows high swing-amplitude in a context of active domestic production and changing global trade patterns. Current data point to a temporary reduction in import reliance. If the next report confirms a 0.070m barrels forecast, Brent prices could ease.
The week will be quieter in terms of central bank activity, but traders will still need to closely monitor speeches from the many central bank officials and governors to discern who has truly turned the page on interest rate cuts and who has not. Central bank comments typically spark FX volatility because they can signal policymakers' intentions on interest rates.
The economic calendar is available via the link. All figures are presented year-on-year (y/y). Where data are shown month-on-month, this is noted (m/m). Trade balances, exports, and imports are quoted in the country's currency. An asterisk * denotes (in ascending order) the importance of the release for instruments available on the InstaForex platform. Publication times are given in MSK (GMT+3:00). Open a trading account here. Also see InstaForex market video news. To keep the tools at hand, we recommend downloading the MobileTrader app.
আমাদের সাথে যোগাযোগ করুন 
