Goldman Sachs doubts the strengthening of the dollar in the short term

Goldman Sachs analysts believe that the strengthening of the dollar in the short term is questionable. Despite the decrease in the volatility of the US currency in recent weeks, the bank sees a number of factors that can provoke its weakening.

Among the key risks, experts Karen Reichgott-Fishman and Lexi Kanter call:

• high political and economic uncertainty,

• threats of new trade duties,

• markets' concern about the Fed's independence,

• fiscal risks and capital outflow from American assets.

One of the alarming signs, according to analysts, was the increase in cases of simultaneous falls in the dollar and American stocks. In 2025, this trend is observed twice as often as the average over the previous ten years. 

Moreover, there are episodes when American stocks, Treasury bonds and the dollar simultaneously decline — this may indicate a decrease in confidence in the United States as a «safe haven» for investors.