The EUR/USD pair is once again at a crossroads, and it appears that traders have already made their choice. Last week, the price reacted to bearish imbalance 11, after which the decline resumed. Despite two buy-side liquidity grabs, the European currency remained under strong pressure for four consecutive days. Without a doubt, geopolitics is the main reason. If the situation in the Middle East had not deteriorated so sharply, we would most likely have seen the continuation of the bullish trend. It is worth recalling that there are no particularly strong reasons for the U.S. currency to rise other than geopolitics. However, geopolitics alone is more than enough for traders to massively buy the dollar.
At the moment, the European currency is in a very ambiguous position for traders. On the one hand, we have observed a decline for about a month and a half, and the trend break line has been broken (blue line). On the other hand, traders know that false breakouts occur quite often, which, combined with liquidity grabs, can trigger strong movement in the opposite direction. On the daily chart, there are at least two clear bearish swings — from August 1 and November 5 of last year. As we remember, the only reason for the pair's decline is geopolitics. How long it will continue supporting the bears is difficult to say, as no one knows how events will develop further. Therefore, I still allow for the possibility of further liquidity grabs followed by renewed growth.
Last week, a new bearish imbalance 12 was formed, which may provide another sell signal this week. In the current situation, bulls can only rely on new liquidity grabs from the last two lows: 1.1470 and 1.1392. However, if the geopolitical situation does not improve, even this will not help the bulls.
The graphical picture still signals bullish dominance. The bullish trend remains intact; however, at the moment, bullish traders appear somewhat disoriented by the rapidly changing flow of information. For the European currency to resume growth, the war in Iran would need to de-escalate, and prices for oil and gas would need to start declining. Alternatively, at the very least, the situation in the Middle East should not deteriorate further. However, today we learned that Israel has launched a ground offensive in Lebanon. To open new long positions, traders need new bullish patterns or at least liquidity grabs from the last two bearish swings.
The news background on Monday was weak. In the United States, the industrial production report was released, but it attracted even less interest from traders than the GDP and durable goods orders reports last Friday. Economic data still has virtually no influence on the dollar's exchange rate or trader sentiment.
In recent months, bulls have had numerous reasons to push the market higher, and even the outbreak of war in the Middle East has not reduced their number. Structurally and globally, Trump's policies, which led to a significant decline in the dollar last year, have not changed. In the near term, the U.S. currency may strengthen amid investors' flight from risk, but this factor cannot support it indefinitely. At the same time, the conflict in Iran does not cancel other negative factors for the United States, including the dovish monetary policy outlook of the FOMC, Trump's trade war with the rest of the world, weakness in the U.S. labor market, two government shutdowns, U.S. military actions, criminal proceedings against Powell, slowing GDP growth, and other unfavorable developments for the U.S. economy.
I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend. The dollar has received temporary market support, but it is not certain that this situation will last for long. However, the bullish trend has been broken, and this must be acknowledged, even if reluctantly. There is still a chance for liquidity grabs followed by a resumption of the trend, but geopolitics continues to weigh heavily on the EUR/USD pair.
News Calendar for the United States and the Eurozone
On March 17, the economic calendar contains three relatively minor events, but the market continues to ignore most reports anyway. Therefore, the impact of the news background on market sentiment on Tuesday may again be extremely weak.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips
In my view, the pair remains in the stage of forming a bullish trend. The news background sharply changed direction two weeks ago, but the trend itself cannot yet be considered fully canceled or completed. Therefore, in the near term, traders need new patterns and signals to form short-term forecasts.
At the moment, bears may receive a signal from imbalance 12, and since the bullish trend is on the verge of breaking, this signal can be taken seriously. Bulls, meanwhile, can only hope for liquidity grabs from the lows at 1.1470 and 1.1392, followed by the formation of bullish patterns and further buy signals.
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