(Reuters) – Coinbase žádá americkou Komisi pro cenné papíry a burzy (SEC) o povolení k nabídce „tokenizovaných akcií“ svým zákazníkům, uvedl v rozhovoru pro agenturu Reuters právní ředitel kryptoměnové burzy.
Pokud bude povolení uděleno, umožní to společnosti Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) efektivně nabízet obchodování s akciemi prostřednictvím technologie blockchain, čímž se dostane do přímé konkurence s retailovými makléřskými společnostmi, jako jsou Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD) a Charles Schwab (NYSE:SCHW), a mohla by se pro Coinbase otevřít nová obchodní příležitost.
Tento koncept je „velkou prioritou“, uvedl Paul Grewal, právní ředitel společnosti Coinbase.
Tokenizace akcií je proces, při kterém jsou akcie společnosti převedeny na digitální tokeny, podobně jako se obchodují kryptoměny. Namísto přímého držení cenných papírů drží investoři tokeny, které představují vlastnictví cenných papírů.
However, US intelligence is far more skeptical. Security analysts warn that Tehran is unlikely to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz in the near future. Control of the planet's main oil artery remains Iran's single real lever over Washington. Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has already responded to Trump's threats, saying the region will "burn to the ground." Tehran's position remains hardline: war crimes will not force Iran to surrender, and the only way out is respect for the rights of the Iranian people. Meanwhile, Iran has begun implementing an electoral blockade system.
According to Tasnim agency, the government and armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran have allowed passage through the Strait of Hormuz for vessels carrying humanitarian and essential cargoes. However, the "pass" is issued exclusively by Iran's Ports and Maritime Organization. Iraq has been given a special status: the Iranian military command officially exempted the "brotherly country" from any shipping restrictions, enabling Baghdad to continue exporting oil despite the broader crisis and thereby driving a wedge into the coalition of Arab states.
The diplomatic gulf between the parties remains enormous. Iran's Foreign Ministry openly states its readiness to strike mirror targets on US infrastructure in the region if Iranian facilities are attacked. Tehran has refused direct meetings with US officials, calling American demands "unacceptable." The world is therefore holding its breath for April 7 — a date that may become either the biggest deal of the decade or the start of a total energy war, where not only Iran's sovereignty but the stability of the entire global financial system is at stake. Trump is personalizing targets (bridges and power plants); Iran is signaling loyalty to humanitarian missions and allies like Iraq while keeping its finger on the "nuclear button" of the global economy.
Between statistics and reality
March US labor market data (+178k jobs) may at first glance look "acceptable," but a deeper look reveals a pathological dependence of the whole system on a single sector. Since May 2025 (the moment of the trend break), the US economy has effectively stopped generating private sector jobs if healthcare is excluded:
We are observing a dangerous pattern: growth is occurring only where human labor is hardest to automate (caregiving, healthcare, food service). Sectors that make up two-thirds of the economy are steadily cutting staff. Historically, such a configuration has always led to a full-scale crisis within 6–9 months. The information sector is going through a "black streak." Record job cuts here directly correlate with the rise of generative AI. The negative macro effect of replacing people with neural networks currently outweighs the gains from higher productivity. Industries are being partially destroyed faster than new supporting sub-sectors are being created.
The drop in unemployment is largely a statistical mirage. Labor force participation has fallen to 61.9%. People simply stop looking for work and drop out of the statistics, creating an illusion of stability. The situation of "low hiring — low firing" indicates that businesses are frozen, waiting for the outcome of the war with Iran and the energy shock. Trump's 2026 economy rests on two pillars:
Excluding healthcare, job cuts are happening at spring 2008 rates. If the productivity gains from AI do not materialize explosively in the coming quarters, a macro break around mid-year will become inevitable. For this reason, some Wall Street investors are taking a wait-and-see stance.
Oil at $120 and emptying IT offices
The current Middle East crisis has long ceased to be only a problem for gas stations. High energy prices are transmitted directly into the cost of living. In March, the CPI for food jumped 2.4% to 128.5 points — the highest level since last autumn. Prices for grain, sugar and vegetable oils are rising across the chain: from fertilizer costs to logistics. The war has given a powerful boost to proponents of the green transition, but as long as the world remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels, the trajectories of importers and exporters continue to diverge, deepening the global crisis.
OPEC+ and "theoretical" output. On April 5, at a meeting of the OPEC+ eight (Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan, Russia, Oman, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Algeria), a preliminary agreement was reached to raise quotas by 206,000 barrels per day in May. But Bloomberg analysts and market experts are unanimous: this decision is purely symbolic. When the Persian Gulf is engulfed in flames, increasing paper quotas does nothing for the physical market. The most frightening figure today is the estimated real drop in output in Persian Gulf countries.
Analysts estimate that the market has lost between 7 and 10 million barrels per day because of the conflict. OPEC+ is trying to preserve the appearance of control and to signal an intention to return to production "once the guns fall silent." But while the JMMC discusses deal compliance, the real oil deficit continues to push the global economy toward stagflation. One month of armed conflict with Iran has presented the United States with a harsh bill: preliminary estimates put direct and indirect economic losses at around $45 billion.
What does Iran cost the Americans?
The first month of a full-scale armed conflict with Iran has delivered a heavy bill to the United States, estimated at $30–45 billion. Each American is effectively paying about $3 a day out of pocket for the operation. The main burden falls on the defense budget, which has already been allocated tens of billions of dollars. But the pain is felt most acutely at the pumps. The jump in oil prices from $79 to $110 per barrel triggered a chain reaction of higher gasoline, logistics and food costs.
At the same time, the US financial sector is bearing hidden but far larger losses:
Analysts' baseline scenario is bleak. Any further escalation in the Strait of Hormuz would trigger another wave of inflation that could finally undermine consumer demand in the country. Against this backdrop, the Trump administration is mounting a large-scale operation to replace the Fed leadership. The Senate is preparing to consider Kevin Warsh's nomination for the Fed chair; hearings in the Banking Committee are scheduled for April 16. However, the process is stalling: influential Senator Thom Tillis has already said he will not allow Warsh's confirmation until the investigation into Powell is complete, creating a serious political obstacle for the White House's plans.
The main locomotive of spending has become the Pentagon's direct combat expenditures. But the population feels the crisis most sharply at the pumps. Oil prices jumping from $79 to $110 per barrel amid threats in the Strait of Hormuz have produced multibillion-dollar additional costs for American households. The economic damage is not limited to fuel prices. An inflationary spiral is beginning to unwind across:
Despite the "military" uncertainty, Goldman Sachs analysts are trying to calm the markets. In their latest report, the bank forecasts that the Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates this year. They argue that the current supply shock is limited compared with the crises of the 1970s and that current monetary policy is already sufficiently tight. CME FedWatch confirms this cautious stance: the probability of rates remaining unchanged in April is put at 99.5%. The market is frozen in fragile equilibrium, waiting to see which will be the decisive factor — a geopolitical detonation or monetary restraint.
6 April, 16:30 / Canada / S&P Global Services PMI for March / prev.: 45.8 / actual: 46.5 / forecast: 48.0 / USD/CAD – down
Business activity in Canada's services sector in February 2026 showed signs of stabilization, rising to 46.5 points. Despite the 15th consecutive month of falling new orders, the rate of decline eased to the most moderate level since last autumn. The sector has been losing jobs for the sixth month in a row. However, business optimism reached a peak on expectations of an influx of tourists ahead of major sporting events. If the March index fails to reach the forecasted 48.0 points, the Canadian dollar may strengthen.
6 April, 17:00 / USA / ISM Services PMI for March / prev.: 53.8 / actual: 56.1 / forecast: 55.0 / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down
The US services sector in February 2026 showed a strong upswing. The ISM index rose to 56.1, marking the fastest expansion in three and a half years. The sharp rise in business activity was supported by:
Although price pressures remain above average, they eased to the lowest level in a year, indicating a gradual slowdown in cost inflation. If the March reading confirms the 55.0 forecast, the dollar index is likely to correct downward.
6 April, 17:00 / USA / ISM Non?Manufacturing New Orders Index for March / prev.: 53.1 / actual: 58.6 / forecast: 57.6 / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down
The new orders index in the US non-manufacturing sector jumped to 58.6 in February 2026. The reading hit its highest level since September 2024, well above the long-term average of 56.5. Such a sharp pickup in demand signals strong resilience of the US domestic market despite tight monetary conditions. If the March data reach the 57.6 forecast, it will add downward pressure on the dollar.
7 April, 02:00 / Australia / S&P Global Services PMI for March / prev.: 56.3 / actual: 52.8 / forecast: 46.6 / AUD/USD – down
Australia's services sector unexpectedly moved into contraction in March 2026 — the PMI plunged to 46.6. This is the first decline in activity in the sector in two years, driven by a sharp drop in domestic demand and business confidence falling to a 20-month low amid the Middle East war. The situation is worsened by three-year-high cost inflation and tariff increases to 2023 levels. If the March index reaches the forecasted 46.6 points, the Australian dollar will weaken.
7 April, 02:30 / Japan / Household spending growth for February / prev.: ?2.6% / actual: ?1.0% / forecast: ?0.7% / USD/JPY – down
Household spending in Japan fell 1.0% year-on-year in January 2026. Although the decline slowed versus December, the result was much weaker than market expectations, which had forecast growth. Recovery in demand for food and household appliances was offset by sharp declines in education and housing. On a monthly basis, personal spending fell 2.5%, indicating persistent fragility in domestic consumption. If February spending contracts to the forecasted -0.7%, the yen will strengthen.
7 April, 04:00 / Australia / Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge for March / prev.: 0.2% / actual: ?0.2% / forecast: 0.5% / AUD/USD – up
Inflationary pressure in Australia unexpectedly "hit the brakes" in February 2026 — the Melbourne Institute gauge fell by 0.2%. This is the first price decline since last August, driven by:
Despite an annual rate of 3.8%, which remains above the central bank's 2–3% target range, the market views this as progress. If the March data confirm the forecasted 0.5% rise, the Australian dollar will get a boost.
7 April, 08:00 / Japan / Leading Economic Index (Prel) for February / prev.: 110.4 / actual: 112.1 / forecast: 112.5 / USD/JPY – down
The Japanese economy is sending upbeat signals: the leading indicators index jumped to 112.1 in January, the highest in three years. The labor market remains resilient, and consumers, encouraged by Tokyo's stimulus measures, are optimistic (confidence at a 21-month high). Although the result was slightly below forecasts, the overall stabilization trend is clear. If the February reading reaches 112.5, the yen will continue to strengthen.
7 April, 10:55 / Germany / S&P Global Services PMI for March / prev.: 52.4 / actual: 53.5 / forecast: 51.2 / EUR/USD – down
Germany's services sector ran into a speed bump in March 2026: the preliminary PMI fell to a seven-month low of 51.2. Five months of rising orders ended due to rising costs and client financial uncertainty. Although the labor market in the sector is still holding up, business expectations have fallen to the year's lows. If the final March reading settles at 51.2, pressure on the euro will increase.
7 April, 11:00 / Eurozone / S&P Global Services PMI for March / prev.: 51.6 / actual: 51.9 / forecast: 50.1 / EUR/USD – down
The eurozone services sector in March 2026 is balancing on the edge of stagnation: the PMI fell to 50.1. Growth has virtually exhausted itself, orders are contracting again, and the Middle East war is adding to cost-push inflation. Even modest employment gains cannot hide that the sector is experiencing its weakest period since last spring. If the forecast of 50.1 is confirmed, the euro will continue to decline.
7 April, 11:30 / United Kingdom / S&P Global Services PMI for March / prev.: 54.0 / actual: 53.9 / forecast: 51.2 / GBP/USD – down
The UK services sector "caught its breath" in March 2026. The PMI eased to 51.2, the weakest six-month result. The biggest hit came from export orders: overseas clients are freezing projects in the Middle East and canceling trips en masse. War-related logistics nightmares have driven up costs, forcing companies to curb hiring. If March's final value is confirmed at 51.2, the pound will face significant pressure.
7 April, 15:15 / USA / ADP Private Sector Weekly Hiring / prev.: 9k / actual: 10k / forecast: – / USDX (6?currency USD index) – volatile
ADP data show that private sector hiring in the US in early March 2026 remained steadily low. The average weekly increase was 10,000 jobs, nearly unchanged from late February. This "freeze" in hiring activity signals employer caution despite the absence of mass layoffs. The lack of a clear trend in the labor market during this period creates scope for volatility in the dollar index.
7 April, 15:30 / USA / New Orders for Durable Goods (m/m) for February / prev.: 1.3% / actual: 0.4% / forecast: 0.7% / USDX (6?currency USD index) – up
New orders for durable goods in the US rose a moderate 0.4% in January, slowing significantly from December's strong surge. Excluding the volatile transportation sector, dynamics remain within long-term averages (0.25%). This points to a cooling of manufacturing momentum, although the sector remains in expansion. If the February reading approaches the 0.7% forecast, it will be a positive signal for the dollar.
7 April, 17:00 / Canada / Ivey PMI for March / prev.: 50.9 / actual: 56.6 / forecast: 57.2 / USD/CAD – down
Canadian economic activity jumped impressively to 56.6 in February. The Ivey index signals broad expansion supported by active inventory replenishment. However, there is a downside: the employment subindex fell below 50, indicating hiring contraction, and logistics chains have begun to slow again. Nevertheless, overall expansion and easing price pressures favor the Canadian dollar. If March's index reaches 57.2, the loonie may strengthen.
7 April, 18:00 / USA / Median Inflation Expectations for March / prev.: 3.1% / actual: 3.0% / forecast: 3.7% / USDX (6?currency USD index) – up
US consumers became slightly more optimistic in February: median one-year inflation expectations fell to the psychological 3.0% mark. People expect cheaper food, rents and healthcare — the lowest reading in seven months. At the same time, gasoline price expectations rose. Stable longer-term inflation expectations (3% at 3 and 5 years) are reassuring for the Fed. But if March expectations jump to the forecasted 3.7%, this could spur dollar strength.
7 April, 23:30 / USA / API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks / prev.: 2.3 mln bbl / actual: 10.263 mln bbl / forecast: – / Brent – volatile
The US oil market faced an unexpected "flood": API crude inventories jumped by more than 10.2 million barrels in a week. This massive build completely contradicted forecasts of inventory draws. Although gasoline and distillate stocks fell, such an oil glut is weighing on prices. Brent's reaction will be extremely volatile as markets await official data from the US Department of Energy.
8 April, 05:00 / New Zealand / Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate decision, press conference / prev.: 2.25% / actual: 2.25% / forecast: 2.25% / NZD/USD – volatile
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept its key interest rate at 2.25%, maintaining a wait-and-see approach. The rate remains the main tool for controlling liquidity in the interbank sector. Any hawkish comments from the regulator or hints at future increases in borrowing costs traditionally support the New Zealand dollar. Given the current maintenance of the status quo amid volatile external conditions, the kiwi is moving in mixed directions.
8 April, 09:00 / Germany / Industrial orders growth in February / prev.: 6.4% / actual: -11.1% / forecast: 5.5% / EUR/USD – up
Germany's industry experienced a real shock in January 2026: order volumes plunged by 11.1%. Such a sharp drop is explained by a "high base effect" after an unusually strong December in metal products. Domestic demand fell by 16%, which looks worrying, although the auto industry and defense sector are still growing. Excluding one-off large contracts, the situation looks more stable (-0.4%). If orders recover to the forecasted 5.5% in February, the euro will receive support.
8 April, 09:00 / United Kingdom / Halifax House Price Index, March / prev.: 0.4% / actual: 1.1% / forecast: 1.3% / GBP/USD – up
The UK housing market showed unexpected vigor in February 2026:
Drivers were Northern Ireland and Scotland, while London and the South East are still cooling. Rate cuts and rising real wages are supporting buyers despite tight supply. If the March data confirm the forecasted 1.3% increase, the pound will receive strong support amid recovering consumer confidence.
8 April, 10:30 / Eurozone / Construction PMI, March / prev.: 45.3 pts / actual: 46.0 pts / forecast: 46.6 pts / EUR/USD – up
The eurozone construction sector lifted its head slightly in February 2026 — the PMI rose to 46.0 points. Although still in contraction (below 50), the trend is encouraging compared with a poor start to the year. The sector is gradually adapting to current financial conditions, although it remains below the historical average of 47.55 points. If the March index reaches the forecasted 46.6 points, the EUR/USD pair may rise on signs that the sector's downturn is ending.
8 April, 10:30 / Germany / Construction PMI, March / prev.: 44.7 pts / actual: 43.7 pts / forecast: 44.5 pts / EUR/USD – up
German construction went into the red again in February 2026. The PMI fell to 43.7 points.
Nevertheless, business expectations jumped to 2020 highs. Developers are optimistic about future infrastructure projects. If the March index recovers to the forecasted 44.5 points, it would be a signal for the euro to strengthen.
8 April, 11:30 / United Kingdom / Construction PMI, March / prev.: 46.4 pts / actual: 44.5 pts / forecast: 43.6 pts / GBP/USD – down
UK construction was hit hard in February 2026: the PMI plunged to 44.5 points amid poor weather and weak demand. Residential construction fell especially sharply. Despite the current setback, experts remain optimistic, expecting business conditions to improve by mid-year. If March figures confirm the pessimistic forecast of 43.6 points, the pound will come under pressure due to stagnation in the real economy.
8 April, 12:00 / Eurozone / Producer price inflation (annual) in February / prev.: -2.0% / actual: -2.1% / forecast: -1.9% / EUR/USD – up
Deflationary pressure at the producer level in the eurozone intensified in January 2026 — prices fell by 2.1% year-on-year. This is well below the long-term average of 2.51% and indicates persistently weak inflation expectations in the industry. For the ECB, this is an important signal that accommodative monetary conditions may persist. If the February figure moves toward the forecasted -1.9%, it could trigger a moderate rise in the euro amid price stabilization.
8 April, 12:00 / Eurozone / Retail sales growth in February / prev.: 1.8% / actual: 2.0% / forecast: 1.8% / EUR/USD – down
Eurozone retail sales rose by 2.0% year-on-year in January 2026. The result exceeded market expectations and the long-term average of 1.18%, confirming resilient consumer demand at the start of the year. Despite high base effects from previous years, the sector shows notable stability, which is a positive sign for the region's domestic market. However, if the February figure cools to the forecasted 1.8%, the euro could weaken against the dollar.
8 April, 17:30 / USA / US crude oil inventories (EIA) / prev.: 6.926 mln bbl / actual: 5.451 mln bbl / forecast: 3.234 mln bbl / Brent – up
US crude inventories for the week ending March 27, 2026, increased by 5.5 million barrels, reaching 461.6 million. The sharp build—well above forecasts—occurred against lower refinery runs and reduced net imports. Market pessimism was partly offset by deep draws in distillate stocks (down 2.1 million barrels) and gasoline. If the forecasted inventory rise of 3.234 million barrels is confirmed, Brent prices will strengthen.
7 April, 19:35 / US / Speech by Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee /
USDX 8 April, 00:50 / US / Speech by Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson /
USDX 8 April, 21:00 / USA / Release of the Federal Reserve minutes from the 18 March meeting / funds rate – 3.75% / USDX
Speeches by representatives of major central banks are also due this week. Their comments typically trigger FX market volatility as they can signal future policy intentions.
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