Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 154.01 level coincided with the MACD indicator beginning to move up from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for further buying of the dollar and resulting in a rise of more than 60 points. In the second half of the day, important data points are expected, including the core personal consumption expenditures index, changes in consumer spending levels, changes in US household income levels, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, and inflation expectations. Strong statistics will restore demand for the dollar, which can be taken advantage of after a slight correction in the pair, currently observed at the time of writing. Regarding the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point around 154.17 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to the level of 155.35 (thicker green line on the chart). At the 155.35 level, I will exit my buy positions and open sell positions in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 points from this level. A strong upward movement in the pair today can be expected only after very strong statistics from the US. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting its upward movement from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 153.44 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth to the target levels of 154.17 and 155.35 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I will sell USD/JPY after the 153.44 level (red line on the chart) is updated, which will lead to a quick drop in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 152.60 level, where I will exit my sell positions and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 20-25 points from this level. Pressure on the pair will return if the US statistics are weak. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting its downward movement from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 154.17 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the target levels of 153.44 and 152.60 can be expected.

Chart Details:

• Thin green line: Entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
• Thick green line: Approximate price where you can set Take Profit or fix profits yourself, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
• Thick red line: Approximate price where you can set Take Profit or fix profits yourself, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders on the forex market must make entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you risk quickly losing your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes. And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.