Analysis of Trades and Trading Advice for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 157.26 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero line, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I refrained from selling the dollar.

The absence of significant economic statistics has kept trading within a sideways channel. After Friday's labor market data, when the dollar initially surged but subsequently lost all its gains, it became evident that yen buyers in the market are unwilling to relinquish control. It's likely that participants are awaiting new data from Japan and statements from the central bank about future policy. Should hawkish comments emerge, pressure on USD/JPY will likely return, as hinted by current market conditions. Today, however, with no statistics from the US, I expect trading to remain within the established channel. For intraday strategies, I'll rely on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY if the price reaches 157.64 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 158.30 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.30, I'll exit long positions and open short positions for a pullback of 30–35 points. Any rise in the pair is expected to occur within the broader sideways channel.Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 157.17 price level, with the MACD indicator in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and prompt an upward reversal. Expect growth to opposing levels of 157.64 and 158.30.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after the level 157.17 (red line on the chart) is breached, likely leading to a sharp decline in the pair. Sellers' primary target will be 156.51, where I'll exit short positions and immediately open long positions for a rebound of 20–25 points. Any pressure on the pair is expected to emerge from the upper boundary of the sideways channel.Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 157.64 price level, with the MACD indicator in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. Expect a decline to opposing levels of 157.17 and 156.51.

Chart Key:

• Thin green line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line: Target price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be manually locked, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line: Target price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be manually locked, as further declines beyond this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it's crucial to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important Notes:

Beginner Forex traders must exercise caution when making market entry decisions. Before significant fundamental reports are released, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If trading during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if trading large volumes without proper money management.

Always remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example provided above. Making spontaneous decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.