Trade analysis and guidance on trading the Japanese yen

The test of the 155.64 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. The second test of 155.64 happened when the MACD indicator was in the oversold zone, which triggered the implementation of Buy Scenario #2. As a result, the pair rose by more than 30 points.

During the U.S. trading session, the main focus will shift to speeches by FOMC representatives Beth M. Hammack and Austan D. Goolsbee. A dovish tone from these officials could negatively affect the U.S. dollar. If expectations of further rate cuts increase, downward pressure on USD/JPY will return. However, it is necessary to consider not only their direct comments on monetary policy but also their general assessment of the economy. In particular, pessimistic forecasts regarding GDP growth or employment levels may indirectly signal a preference for policy easing by the Federal Reserve.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:

I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches the entry point around 156.05 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 156.30 (the thicker green line on the chart). Near 156.30, I will close long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35-point reversal from the level). A rise in the pair can be expected only after a hawkish stance from the Fed. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and only beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 155.85 twice while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. A rise toward the opposite levels of 156.05 and 156.30 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:

I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the price breaks below 155.85 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 155.53, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-point rebound from the level). Downward pressure on the pair will return only if Fed rhetoric turns dovish. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and beginning its decline.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 156.05 twice while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 155.85 and 155.53 can be expected.

What is shown on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price where the trading instrument can be bought
• Thick green line – suggested level for placing a Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price where the trading instrument can be sold
• Thick red line – suggested level for placing a Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones

Important Note for Beginners

Beginner Forex traders must be extremely cautious when deciding to enter the market. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp volatility. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you ignore money-management rules and trade large volumes.

And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, like the one provided above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are, from the outset, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.