Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Euro

The test of the 1.1683 level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. However, the trade resulted in a loss, as the pair did not continue to decline.

The currency market is currently experiencing a period of calm. Market quietness creates anxiety, as geopolitical uncertainty often generates more fear than even negative news. Demand for risk assets will depend on how the situation in the Middle East develops further.

Additionally, U.S. existing home sales data is expected to be released. According to forecasts, these figures are unlikely to significantly impact market conditions. Although housing sector data traditionally serves as an important indicator of the U.S. economy, under current circumstances its importance will likely be secondary.

The upcoming meeting of the International Monetary Fund is also significant. It is of particular interest in the context of geopolitical developments in the Middle East. The meeting is expected to address issues related to restoring stability in regions affected by the conflict. Special attention will likely be given to potential U.S. restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz and their impact on global trade flows.

As for intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, euro buying is possible when the price reaches around 1.1693 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1729. At 1.1729, I plan to exit the market and also open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. A rise in the euro today can only be expected if U.S. data turns out to be very weak.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1679 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. A rise toward 1.1693 and 1.1729 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1679 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1649, where I plan to exit the market and open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair will return if strong U.S. data is released.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1693 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.1679 and 1.1649 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price for buying
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or area to manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or area to manually lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, pay attention to overbought and oversold zones

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp price fluctuations.

If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you are not using proper risk management and are trading large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is a losing strategy for intraday traders.