Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 159.38 level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair declined toward the target level of 159.08.

Going forward, only statements from Mary Daly, Thomas Barkin, and Christopher Waller may significantly change the balance of power in the market. Traders, including investors and analysts, have recently been closely analyzing every word for hints about the future direction of monetary policy—especially in the context of a possible end to the conflict between the U.S. and Iran. The most important statements are likely to come from Christopher Waller, who is often associated with a more hawkish stance. His comments may signal the need for more decisive action to contain inflation, if deemed necessary. This could significantly influence market expectations regarding further monetary tightening, leading to a stronger dollar and growth in the USD/JPY pair.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches the entry point around 159.17 (green line on the chart), with a target of 159.50 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 159.50, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 30–35 point move). Growth in the pair today can be expected if the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 158.96 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 159.17 and 159.50 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a breakout below the 158.96 level (red line on the chart), which may lead to a rapid decline. The key target for sellers will be 158.68, where I plan to exit short positions and open long positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair will return if policymakers adopt a dovish tone.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 159.17 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 158.96 and 158.68 can be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated level for placing Take Profit or locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated level for placing Take Profit or locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not apply proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.