The EUR/USD pair on Monday again tried to start a correction and bounce from the 1.1461–1.1471 area, but that plan failed once more. Traders cannot push through the 1.1461–1.1471 zone nor stage a meaningful rebound from it. In other words, after two weeks of decline, EUR/USD cannot even mount a modest correction, which is a very negative sign for the euro. The trend line is pressing the price ever more tightly, but remember that breaking a trend line inside a sideways range has little meaning. If price breaks a trend line within a flat, it does not necessarily imply a trend change. Therefore, trading should be based on the flat. On Monday, there were no important releases in the euro area or the US, so traders had nothing to react to and volatility was extremely low. The situation is unlikely to change on Tuesday, as the macroeconomic and fundamental calendar is again essentially empty. The dollar keeps winning after a two-week rise driven by one factor only — Federal Reserve tightening. As we see, the euro cannot even correct on the back of two European Central Bank hikes.
Technically, a downtrend continues to form. The market once again ignored the ECB's hawkish move but aggressively priced in the Fed's rate hike. If this continues, the dollar could remain strong for a long time. Breaking the trend line in a flat will not mean a shift to an uptrend.
On the 5-minute timeframe on Monday, one buy signal formed as a bounce from the 1.1461–1.1473 area. However, after that signal, price only moved about 15 pips in the intended direction — enough at best to move the Stop-Loss to breakeven.
The latest COT report is dated September 15. On the weekly timeframe, it is clear that non-commercial traders' net position remains bearish and has fallen sharply in 2026 amid geopolitical events. Traders have been reducing euro exposure in favor of the US dollar over the past six months. Trump's policy has not changed, but the dollar acted as a reserve currency for a period.
However, we still do not see fundamental factors for further USD strength. The Middle East war made the dollar temporarily super-attractive, but when that factor's "shelf life" expires, everything should return to normal — and that shelf life may already have expired. In the long term, the euro could fall as low as $1.08 (trend line), but the long-term uptrend remains intact. During recent months of dollar strength, the pair has not come close to that trend line.
The placement of the red and blue indicator lines indicates approximate parity between bulls and bears. During the last reporting week, long positions in the "Non-commercial" group rose by 10,500 contracts while shorts fell by 5,100. Accordingly, the net position increased by 15,600 contracts for the week.
On the hourly timeframe, EUR/USD continues to form a downward trend, and the Fed has strongly supported the southbound move. The ECB should have supported the euro last week when it raised rates for the second time in 2026, but the market now focuses primarily on the Fed and its tightening. Thus, the dollar has effectively formed a bona fide trend out of thin air, and market sentiment may remain bearish going forward.
For September 22 we highlight the following trading levels — 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362–1.1368, 1.1461–1.1473, 1.1536–1.1542, 1.1585, 1.1657–1.1665, 1.1750–1.1760, 1.1786, 1.1830–1.1837, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1555) and the Kijun-sen (1.1505). The Ichimoku lines may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Remember to move the Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15 pips in the correct direction — this will protect against losses if the signal proves false.
On Tuesday, the economic calendars for the euro area and the US are nearly empty, so traders will again have little to react to. We therefore expect low volatility and sideways price action today.
Today, traders may consider short positions targeting 1.1362–1.1368 if price consolidates below 1.1461–1.1473. A bounce from the 1.1461–1.1473 zone would allow you to open long positions targeting 1.1527–1.1542. Volatility may again be low today.
Support and resistance price levels are thick red lines where movement may conclude. They are not sources of trading signals.
The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.
Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price has previously rebounded. They are sources of trading signals.
Yellow lines indicate trend lines, trending channels, and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on COT charts shows the size of the net position of each category of traders.
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