Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound

The 1.3244 price level was tested when the MACD indicator had just started moving down from the zero line, confirming the validity of the entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair declined toward the target level of 1.3228.

For the pound, this morning was quiet, and the market took advantage of the lack of significant drivers. Lloyds' house price index showed no change in September compared with the previous period, against a forecast of 0.2% growth. There was simply no reason for the pound to react to such a figure, so it ignored the data. Interestingly, other indicators had shown a more active picture, as the Nationwide index had previously recorded a 1.6% annual increase in house prices. Property buyers have not disappeared, but high borrowing costs are restraining the market, which is reflected in its subdued dynamics. The lack of factors supporting growth led to a further increase in short positions on GBP/USD.

But the main event of the day is still ahead. The minutes of the September Fed meeting will be released today, and the tone of the minutes will determine how far the decline may extend. I believe that hawkish comments could trigger a new wave of selling in the pound, while dovish comments could put short positions at risk of rapid closure, allowing the pair to recover a significant part of its losses.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when the entry point is reached in the 1.3233 level (green line on the chart), with a target of rising toward 1.3249 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3249, I will exit the long position and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level. A rise in the pound today can only be expected following very weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just started rising from it.

Scenario No. 2: Today, I also plan to buy the pound if the price tests 1.3222 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3233 and 1.3249 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after the 1.3222 level is broken to a new low (red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3203, where I will exit the short position and immediately open a long position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level. Strong downward pressure on the pound will return following strong economic data. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just started declining from it.

Scenario No. 2: Today, I also plan to sell the pound if the price tests 1.3233 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3222 and 1.3203 can be expected.

What Is Shown on the Chart:

• Thin green line – indicates the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – indicates the expected price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – indicates the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – indicates the expected price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to take the overbought and oversold areas into account.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to remain out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making trading decisions spontaneously based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.