The copper market is in shock: how Trump's tariffs have upended global trade

The global copper market has experienced the strongest shock in a year, marked by sharp price fluctuations and disruptions in supply chains. Donald Trump imposed 50% duties on copper imports to the United States, exempting only refined metal – a key element of international trade. 

This decision triggered a record drop in prices on Comex, where futures collapsed by more than 22%, while the decline on the LME turned out to be much more modest. As a result, Comex contracts began trading at a discount to the LME benchmark.

The exclusion for refined copper threatens to change the global trade flows of a metal widely used in electrical wiring. Huge stocks have already accumulated in warehouses in the United States, and the market is discussing the possibility of their re-export. When Trump first spoke about the duties, prices in the United States soared, prompting traders to quickly ship the metal to the country. This was the largest deal for the market in recent years.

In July, the US president unexpectedly announced 50% duties, which forced traders to rush to deliver the metal, and some to short the spread between Comex and LME. The decision 48 hours before the tariffs were imposed demonstrated the rigidity of Trump's policy, but also highlighted the inability of the United States to quickly ramp up domestic production to replace imports.