Trade analysis and tips for trading the European currency

The test of the 1.1627 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero mark, confirming a correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined to around 1.1597.

Inflation in Germany in February remained unchanged at 0.2% and matched economists' forecasts, which may have increased pressure on the euro. Such stagnation in price indicators in the largest economy of the eurozone may be interpreted by markets as a signal that inflationary pressure across the region remains low, encouraging the European Central Bank to keep interest rates at a low level.

Today, the announcement of several key macroeconomic indicators is expected. A special place in the economic calendar is given to the reports on the Consumer Price Index for February and core inflation. If inflation figures exceed expectations, it could raise concerns about a return to a period of high interest rates, which is bad for the economy but good for the dollar. However, the focus will most likely be on core inflation.

In addition, investors will closely watch the speech by Michelle Bowman, a member of the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). FOMC participants are key figures in shaping monetary policy, and their statements often contain valuable hints about the central bank's future intentions. Ms. Bowman's comments—especially regarding inflation prospects and the labor market—could significantly influence market sentiment and help traders adjust their expectations.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, euros can be bought when the price reaches the level of 1.1611 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1631. At 1.1631, I plan to exit the market and also sell euros in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. Growth of the euro can be expected after weak U.S. economic data.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy euros today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1589 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels 1.1611 and 1.1631 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell euros after the price reaches 1.1589 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1555, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move upward from the level). Pressure on the pair may return at any moment.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell euros today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1611 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and cause a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels 1.1589 and 1.1555 can then be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – the estimated price where Take Profit can be set or profits can be manually fixed, since further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – the estimated price where Take Profit can be set or profits can be manually fixed, since further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should make market entry decisions very cautiously. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade with large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.