US stock markets closed September on solid footing. The main driver was reports on consumer inflation. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index—closely watched by the Fed—slowed to 3.4% (forecast 3.7%), which immediately reduced the odds of an October Fed rate hike. According to the CME FedWatch tool, investors had priced the chance of a Fed hike in October as 50/50 before the PCE release; after the August PCE print, that probability fell to 34%. Some analysts are now even expecting a pause at the next Fed meeting. Against that backdrop:

• the S&P 500 rose 0.6%
• the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.0%
• the Dow Jones added 0.19%

Gary Schlossberg, global strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, noted that macro data point to continued impressive US economic momentum in mid-Q3 and that American consumers remain resilient and are in much better shape than previously thought. However, other financial analysts urge caution in forecasting the Fed's near-term decisions.

Bill Adams, chief US economist at Fifth Third Commercial Bank, described the August PCE print as "a half-full glass." He reminded readers that while inflation is falling, it is still far above the Fed's 2% target. In his view, the October rate decision remains wide open and will depend on September's consumer (CPI) and producer (PPI) price indices, fuel prices at the pump, and geopolitical developments in the coming weeks.

Fed officials themselves remain split. New York Fed President John Williams believes there is no need to rush further policy moves after September's step, though he still leans toward additional hikes before year-end. In contrast, Fed Governor Lisa Cook is concerned that elevated inflation in the US has persisted too long. Those factors, combined with month- and quarter-end profit-taking by traders, pushed the US dollar back.

As a result, the dollar retreated from two-month highs. The 101 level on the six-currency USD index again acted as a turning point where gains stalled. Nevertheless, the greenback closed September with its best monthly performance since June, helped by rising long-term US Treasury yields late in the month—for example, 10-year yields climbed to about 5.3% (a high not seen since 2002). High sovereign yields (above roughly 5.0–5.5%) present real competition for equities, whose share in investor portfolios has reached about 72% (a peak since 1969, according to Wells Fargo).

At the same time, the bond market has largely ignored the inflation slowdown, driven instead by:

• an upward revision to US Q2 GDP growth to 2.2% (from an initial 1.5%)
• a stronger-than-expected ADP private sector payrolls report for September (+90k versus a 70k forecast)

Ongoing pressure from the energy sector and underlying economic resilience have reinforced investor expectations for one more Fed hike before year-end—most likely in December.

October 1

Oct 1, 02:00 / Australia / S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (final) for September / prev.: 52.0 / actual: 52.0 / forecast: 49.3 / AUD/USD – down Australia's manufacturing business activity index for August held at 52.0, remaining in expansionary territory as moderate industrial activity persisted. For September, analysts expect a sharp slowdown, with the manufacturing index forecast to slip into contraction at 49.3. The anticipated deterioration in factory conditions would weigh on the Australian dollar and push AUD/USD lower.

Oct 1, 02:50 / Japan / Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q3 / prev.: 17 / actual: 22 / forecast: 25 / USD/JPY – down

Japan's large manufacturers business sentiment index rose in Q2 to the highest level since early 2018. Strength was driven by

• rising optimism in machinery,
• equipment manufacturing, non-ferrous metals, and shipbuilding;
• resilient sector activity despite higher energy costs;
• an 11.5% increase in corporate capex expectations;
• and weakening sentiment in pulp, ceramics and metalworking.

For Q3, analysts expect the large manufacturers index to continue rising to 25. Strengthening business optimism would support the yen and push USD/JPY lower.

Oct 1, 02:50 / Japan / Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index Q3 / prev.: 36 / actual: 37 / forecast: 35 / USD/JPY – up

Japan's non-manufacturing business activity index rose in Q2 to the highest levels since autumn 1991, reflecting persistent positive sentiment in services. For Q3, analysts forecast a moderation to 35. Cooling service sector sentiment would weigh on the yen and push USD/JPY higher.

Oct 1, 04:30 / Australia / Trade balance (Aug) / prev.: AUD 2.341bn / actual: AUD 1.923bn / forecast: AUD 2.00bn / AUD/USD – up

Australia's trade surplus for July narrowed to AUD 1.923 billion. Exports fell 3.3% as shipments of gold, coal and briquettes declined, while imports fell 2.5% amid weak domestic demand for fuel and lubricants. For August, markets expect the surplus to recover to around AUD 2.00 billion. A rebound in external trade would support the Australian dollar and lift AUD/USD.

Oct 1, 09:30 / Australia / RBA Commodity Price Index (Sep) / prev.: 17.2% / actual: 15.5% / forecast: 15.0% / AUD/USD – down

Australia's year-on-year commodity price index for August slowed but remained in firm growth territory. The result reflected

• higher prices for major commodities (except iron ore and alumina),
• faster gains in non-ferrous metals and non-agricultural products,
• and a drop in the agricultural subindex.

Analysts expect the index to slow further to 15.0% in September. Cooling export commodity prices would pressure the Australian dollar and push AUD/USD lower.

Oct 1, 10:55 / Germany / S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (final) for September / prev.: 52.2 / actual: 54.3 / forecast: 53.8 / EUR/USD – down

Germany's manufacturing PMI for August showed a strong uptick, reflecting robust sector growth. Drivers included:

• sustained high output (55.9),
• a material inflow of new orders,
• the slowest pace of job cuts since autumn 2023,
• continued cost inflation from energy even as selling price growth hit a six-month low,
• and improved forward sentiment among manufacturers.

For September, analysts expect the manufacturing PMI to ease to 53.8. Slowing factory momentum would weigh on the euro and push EUR/USD lower.

Oct 1, 11:00 / Eurozone / S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (final) for September / prev.: 51.9 / actual: 52.7 / forecast: 52.7 / EUR/USD – volatile

The eurozone manufacturing PMI rose in August into a solid expansion phase. The sector saw

• output climb to a 55-month high (53.4),
• a return of export orders,
• stable employment,
• rising purchasing activity,
• an end to the long drawdown in inventories,
• and accelerating input-cost and output-price inflation amid easing business optimism.

Analysts expect the manufacturing PMI to hold at an elevated 52.7 in September. Continued positive manufacturing momentum would support the euro.

Oct 1, 11:30 / United Kingdom / S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (final) for September / prev.: 51.9 / actual: 51.7 / forecast: 52.0 / GBP/USD – up

The UK manufacturing PMI eased slightly in August but remained in expansion. The sector was weighed down by weaker consumer demand but supported by defence spending and AI-related investments. Employment rose for the sixth month in a row amid the largest order-book expansion since early 2022; input-cost inflation (driven by fuel) accelerated, and business confidence rose to February highs. Markets expect the PMI to tick up to 52.0 in September. Accelerating industrial activity would support the pound and push GBP/USD higher.

Oct 1, 14:30 / US / Challenger Job Cut Announcements (Sep) / prev.: 33,429 / actual: 52,881 / forecast: 78,000 / USDX – down

US corporate layoff announcements in August rose month-on-month but remained 38.5% below last year's levels. Layoffs were concentrated in:

• consumer goods (Procter & Gamble, Estee Lauder),
• food (Tyson) and technology;
• restructurings were the main cause (AI ranked fourth).

Total layoffs are down 41% year-to-date versus 2025. Analysts expect announced job cuts to jump to 78k in September. A worsening labor picture would weigh on the dollar.

Oct 1, 15:30 / US / Initial Jobless Claims / prev.: 198k / actual: 197k / forecast: 200k / USDX – down

New claims for unemployment benefits fell to 197,000 in the third week of September, a modest drop of 1,000 from the prior week and well below the long-run average of about 359,120. The data point to continued strength in the labor market. Analysts expect claims to inch up to 200,000 in the next release; rising claims would signal labor market cooling and pressure the dollar.

October 1

Oct 1, 16:30 / Canada / S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (final) for September / prev.: 53.0 / actual: 53.5 / forecast: 53.0 / USD/CAD – up

Canada's manufacturing business activity index for August stayed in expansion and above the 50-point threshold for the fifth month running. The sector was supported by: an acceleration in output to the strongest pace since mid-spring; a jump in job creation to the highest levels since autumn 2024; higher purchasing and inventory building amid availability concerns; and business confidence in manufacturing rising to the highest readings since late 2024.

Markets expect the manufacturing PMI to ease to 53.0 in September. A slowdown in factory dynamics would weigh on the Canadian dollar and push USD/CAD higher.

Oct 1, 16:45 / United States / S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (final) for September prev.: 53.9 / actual: 53.9 / forecast: 57.0 / USDX – up

The US manufacturing PMI for September showed a material improvement — the strongest since spring 2022. The upswing was driven by output recovering to levels not seen since April 2022, a sharp acceleration in new orders to four-and-a-half-year highs, the fastest job creation in the sector since early 2021, and lengthening supplier lead times due to high utilization.

Analysts expect the manufacturing PMI to rise to 57.0 in September. Faster manufacturing growth would support the US dollar.

Oct 1, 17:00 / United States / ISM Manufacturing PMI for September / prev.: 55.6 / actual: 54.6 / forecast: 55.0 / USDX – up

The ISM manufacturing index for August eased but remained in expansion for the eighth consecutive month. The report showed slower growth in new orders (53.7), steady output (58.3) with softer hiring (51.2), elevated input-cost pressure (71.1) and delivery delays linked to tariffs and geopolitics, and declines in backlogs and imports.

Analysts expect the ISM PMI to rebound to 55.0 in September. Renewed expansion would support the dollar.

Oct 1, 17:00 / United States / ISM Manufacturing Employment Index for September / prev.: 52.8 / actual: 51.2 / forecast: 51.5 / USDX – up

The ISM manufacturing employment index fell 1.6 points in August but remained in expansion. Hiring increased in seven of 18 manufacturing industries, the manufacturing sector recorded a growth streak for the 22nd month, and job creation moderated.

Analysts expect the employment index to tick up to 51.5 in September. Stronger factory hiring would support the dollar.

October 2

Oct 2, 02:30 / Japan / Tokyo CPI (YoY) for September / prev.: 1.8% / actual: 1.9% / forecast: 2.3% / USD/JPY – down

Tokyo's year-on-year consumer inflation in August accelerated to 1.9%. The rise reflected continued broadening base price pressures, but readings remain below the long-run average of about 2.39%. Cost pressures are mounting across services and goods. Markets expect Tokyo CPI to accelerate to 2.3% in September. Stronger price pressure would increase the likelihood of BOJ tightening, supporting the yen and pushing USD/JPY lower.

Oct 2, 08:00 / Japan / Consumer Confidence Index for September / prev.: 34.9 / actual: 35.5 / forecast: 36.0 / USD/JPY – down

Japan's consumer confidence rose in August to its best level since late winter. Improvements were driven by better assessments of general health (to 34.1), increased willingness to make major purchases (to 27.5), and a modest easing of optimism regarding incomes and hiring. Markets expect the consumer confidence index to rise to 36.0 in September. Higher household confidence would support the yen and push USD/JPY lower.

Oct 2, 12:00 / Eurozone / CPI (prelim.) for September / prev.: 2.9% / actual: 3.2% / forecast: 3.6% / EUR/USD – up

Eurozone year-on-year inflation accelerated to 3.2% in August, a multi-month high. Drivers included a 14.3% jump in energy inflation amid:

• the Middle East conflict, faster prices for unprocessed food and non-food goods,
• services inflation easing to 3.0,
• core inflation at 2.4,
• and accelerating prices across major economies (Germany, France, Spain, and Italy).

Markets expect CPI to rise further to 3.6% in September. Rising price pressure would increase the odds of a hawkish ECB and support the euro.

Oct 2, 15:30 / United States / Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) / prev.: 21k / actual: 162k / forecast: 90k / USDX – down

US payrolls rose by 162,000 in August — the best five-month result. Job gains were concentrated in leisure & hospitality (+59k) and local education (+42k), with continued hiring in manufacturing (+16k) and healthcare (+13k). Employment in information declined (-23k). Revisions added 55k to the prior two months. Markets expect nonfarm payrolls to slow to 90k in September. A cooling job market would weigh on the dollar and push USDX lower.

Oct 2, 15:30 / United States / Private Payrolls (Sep) / prev.: 71k / actual: 127k / forecast: 82k / USDX – down

Private sector payrolls accelerated in August, beating expectations. The advance was driven by strong hiring in food services and bars (+59k), continued gains in manufacturing (+16k), engineering and metalworking, and healthcare (+13k), while IT and infrastructure providers shed jobs (-23k). Markets expect private hiring to slow to 82k in September. Slower private sector hiring would weaken the dollar.

Scheduled speeches / events (selected):

Oct 1, 00:10 / US / Chicago Fed President Ostan Goolsby — USDX

Oct 1, 01:00 / US / Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari — USDX

Oct 1, 02:50 / Japan / BOJ brief commentary roundup — USD/JPY

Oct 1, 10:00 / Eurozone / ECB Governing Council meeting — EUR/USD

Oct 1, 11:00 / UK / Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey — GBP/USD

Oct 1, 13:35 / Eurozone / ECB Executive Board member Joachim Nagel — EUR/USD

Oct 1, 15:00 / UK / Bank of England MPC member Catherine Mann — GBP/USD

Oct 1, 16:05 / US / Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin — USDX

Oct 1, 16:05 / US / Boston Fed President Susan Collins — USDX

Oct 1, 16:05 / US / Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid — USDX

Oct 1, 16:30 / Eurozone / ECB President Christine Lagarde — EUR/USD

Oct 2, 01:45 & 17:00 / US / Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan — USDX

Oct 2, 22:35 / Eurozone / ECB Executive Board member Joachim Nagel — EUR/USD

Comments from central bank officials are likely to drive FX volatility as they may signal future policy intentions.