The test of 1.1864 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move upward from the zero line, which confirmed the correct entry point for buying the euro in line with the trend. As a result, the pair gained 50 pips.
Yesterday's decision by the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 0.25% initially pushed the euro higher. However, since Fed Chair Powell did not provide clear, stronger guidance for further substantial monetary easing this year, the U.S. dollar quickly regained ground. Investors had hoped for a more decisive signal confirming the Fed's commitment to a dovish policy stance. The absence of firm promises disappointed market participants, who had been looking for stronger measures to stimulate the economy. Uncertainty about the Fed's future moves drove investors back into the dollar, which has historically been considered a safe-haven asset in times of economic instability.
The euro's upward momentum is likely to remain constrained. Today, the ECB will publish its current account data, alongside a speech from ECB President Christine Lagarde. However, investors are unlikely to expect much, as Lagarde is not expected to touch on monetary policy. Overall, short-term forecasts for the pair remain negative. For a sustained euro recovery, encouraging macroeconomic indicators are needed; otherwise, pressure on the single currency will persist.
As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Buy the euro at around 1.1805 (green line on the chart), targeting 1.1875. At 1.1875, I plan to exit long positions and sell immediately in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 pip move down from the entry level. Buying should only be considered after strong economic data. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: Another buying opportunity arises if the price tests 1.1774 twice in a row while the MACD is in oversold territory. This will limit the downside potential and trigger a reversal upward. Targets are 1.1805 and 1.1875.
Scenario #1: Sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1744 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1722, where I plan to exit shorts and buy in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 pip rebound. Selling will gain momentum if economic data disappoints. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: Another selling setup is if the price tests 1.1805 twice in a row while the MACD is in overbought territory. This will cap the upside potential and trigger a reversal downward. Targets will be 1.1774 and 1.1722.
Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought.
Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold.
Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas.
Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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