The test of the price at 1.3220 occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning its downward move from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair declined by more than 25 pips.
The US dollar rose last Friday after data showed that the number of jobs in the US rebounded in March, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly decreased. The report indicated that non-farm jobs increased by 178,000 last month. These figures were better than analysts' forecasts, which anticipated a job increase of 68,000. Simultaneously, the unemployment rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4% in February.
This indicates that a labor shortage is forming in the job market, which is usually a positive signal for the economy. The decrease in unemployment may also stimulate wage growth, which, in turn, will support consumer spending. Positive macroeconomic indicators in the US labor market suggest the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged, as a stable job market is a key factor influencing the Fed's monetary policy decisions.
Today, there is no data from the UK, so pressure on the pound could return at any moment.
As for the intraday strategy, I will focus on implementing Buy Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching an entry point at 1.3222 (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.3247 (thicker green line on the chart). At the level of 1.3247, I intend to exit my long positions and immediately sell back (anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the entry point). It is unlikely to expect a strong rise in the pound today. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3208 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.3222 and 1.3247 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after it reaches 1.3208 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 1.3182, where I plan to exit my short positions and immediately buy back (anticipating a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pound could return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3222 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.3208 and 1.3182 can be expected.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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