Friday's Trade Analysis:

1-Hour Chart of EUR/USD

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Friday. The first thought that comes to mind is that the dollar has run out of steam. Over the past month and a half, the U.S. currency did not have strong reasons to keep rising continuously. We cannot say the dollar has excessively increased, and the daily timeframe shows this is not the case. However, it did rise at a time when its decline would have raised no questions. The market has ignored everything over the past month and a half: the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve, the U.S. shutdown (which began on October 1 and is still ongoing), Donald Trump's new tariffs and duties, and the lack of key labor market and unemployment statistics. Now, the market may start to address all these factors belatedly. The upward trend for 2025 remains relevant, and the price on the daily timeframe has dropped to the area near the lower boundary of the range at 1.1400-1.1830. Thus, the movements we have seen recently are mostly technical. There is no trend line on the hourly timeframe, so clear confirmations of the end of the downward trend are currently absent.

5-Minute Chart of EUR/USD

On the 5-minute timeframe, a trading signal was formed on Friday, but it came towards the end of the working week in the currency market. The price bounced off the 1.1571-1.1584 area, allowing short positions to be opened. However, in our view, it was not worth doing this right before the market closed for the weekend. If any beginners acted on this signal, they would be in profit now and could move their Stop Loss to breakeven.

How to Trade on Monday:

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair still maintains its downward trend, but it may end soon. The overall fundamental and macroeconomic background for the U.S. dollar remains very weak. Thus, only on technical grounds can the euro continue to decline – the flat on the daily timeframe is still relevant. However, we expect its completion and a resumption of the upward trend for 2025.

On Monday, novice traders can trade from the areas of 1.1527-1.1531 and 1.1571-1.1584. Today, there will be no macroeconomic background, so volatility may be very weak.

On the 5-minute timeframe, traders should consider the levels of 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1571-1.1584, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908, and 1.1970-1.1988. There are no interesting events or reports scheduled in the U.S. and the Eurozone for Monday. Therefore, it is unlikely we will see strong, attractive movements during the day.

Key Principles of My Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is considered based on the time taken to form the signal (bounce or breach of a level). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades have been opened around a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can create numerous false signals or may not form them at all. In any case, it's best to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
4. Trading deals are opened during the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which all deals should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferable to trade based on signals from the MACD indicator only when there is good volatility and a trend that is confirmed by a trend line or trend channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (between 5 and 20 pips), they should be treated as an area of support or resistance.
7. After a 15-pip move in the right direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What the Charts Show:

• Support and resistance price levels are targets for opening buy or sell positions. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.
• Red lines indicate trend channels or trend lines, reflecting the current trend and indicating the preferred trading direction.
• The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — histogram and signal line — is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important announcements and reports (always available in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is recommended to trade with maximum caution or to exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Beginners trading on the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and money management is key to long-term success in trading.