Today, Americans vote for a new Congress, and the outcome will determine how freely the Trump administration can pursue a strategy toward Iran and set tariff policy. All 435 House seats and about one-third of the Senate are on the line. Markets approached the day with elevated oil prices and expectations for another Fed rate hike. Late last week, Brent traded near $116, gold slipped to about $4,000, and traders put roughly an 85% probability on a December 9 rate increase after the October 28 meeting.

Early voting data is telling. About 57 million Americans have already voted ahead of Election Day, with early turnout outpacing the 2022 midterms. In the 27 states that track party registration, roughly 43% of early ballots were cast by registered Democrats and about 32% by Republicans. Early voters are typically the most motivated partisans, so I don't view these numbers as a lock on the final result, but they align with other indicators suggesting a Democratic-leaning environment.

Democrats look favored in the House. The question is the margin. Key battlegrounds include districts in New York, Michigan, Florida, and Texas. Republicans could benefit from financial advantages in tight races, but Trump's weak ratings on economic stewardship work against them.

The Senate is a tougher puzzle. Democrats must net four seats to take control, and most contests are in states Trump carried in 2024. Republican seats in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and even Texas are under pressure amid economic dissatisfaction. Michigan appears to be the only currently competitive seat leaning Democratic.

Money, not ideology, will often decide the outcome. The Iran war has pushed energy and gasoline prices higher, translating into greater voter discontent. The US economy still looks resilient. The third-quarter GDP grew at a 3.4% annualized rate, marking the fastest pace in a year, but September's rise in core PCE to 3.6% and the brisk monthly price increase still weigh more heavily on voters' minds. Trump promises $5,000 checks and lower energy costs if reelected, though he has previously dismissed cost-of-living concerns as overblown.

Counting could stretch for days — and in Alaska, the ranked-choice tally may take weeks. Trump has said he will accept defeat "if the elections are honest," and the Justice Department has filed suits in about 30 states and DC over voter rolls; courts have rejected most of these claims, and the Supreme Court recently denied the administration's appeal in California. A protracted result dispute would primarily mean more market volatility.

For markets, the winner's name matters less than what the result implies for borrowing, taxation, and interest rates. Bond yields typically react first, followed by the dollar and gold. The dollar's direction depends on why yields move: stronger growth expectations tend to boost the dollar, while doubts about public finances can weaken it. Iran adds another layer of uncertainty: The New York Times reports US and Israeli contingency plans for strikes after the midterms, and Trump said the war could end right after the vote. If the House flips to Democrats, congressional oversight would increase on war spending and tariffs, but existing measures would not be automatically reversed.

I see a high probability Democrats take the House and the Senate remain close, so a split Congress looks likely. That would reduce the chance of large new spending being approved quickly and likely increase pressure on the administration over military and trade policy. But markets will keep their focus on the Fed and oil. With Brent above $110 and a December hike priced in, the dollar should get modest support, and gold should continue to trade around $4,000 under pressure. If the Senate fight drags on, expect a spike in Treasury volatility in the sessions immediately after the vote.

EUR/USD technicals

Buyers should target reclaiming 1.1200 to test 1.1230. From there, a move to 1.1255 would be possible, though breaking higher without support from major players would be difficult. On the downside, expect buyers near 1.1170. If the price fails to break above that level, wait for a break below 1.1130 or consider long positions near 1.1110.

GBP/USD technicals

Sterling buyers should work to take resistance at 1.3415 to target 1.3444. Clearing that level would open the way to 1.3467. If the price falls, bears will try to control 1.3380. A break below that level would hit bulls hard, dragging GBP/USD down to 1.3354 and potentially opening the path toward 1.3324.