The wave structure on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has changed but remains generally understandable. There is no question of canceling the uptrend that began in January 2025, but the wave structure since July 1 has become significantly more complex and elongated. In my view, the instrument is currently forming corrective wave 4, which has taken an unusual shape. Inside this wave, we see only corrective structures, so there is no doubt about the corrective nature of the decline.

I believe the upward trend is not yet complete, and its targets are scattered up to the 25th figure. The series of waves a-b-c-d-e appears complete, so in the coming weeks I expect the formation of a new upward wave set. We have seen the presumed wave 1 or a, and now the instrument is forming wave 2 or b. I expected the second wave to end in the 38.2%-61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the first wave, but prices dropped to 76.4%. This decline still allows for the formation of wave 3 or c.

The EUR/USD rate gained about 30 basis points on Monday by the start of the U.S. session, which is not insignificant considering the complete lack of news flow. In other words, Monday did not even have background events that normally aren't noted in calendars but influence market sentiment. However, the amplitude of movements remains very weak, and a 30-point rise does not guarantee further growth of 150-200 points.

My current strategy is to wait for the formation of the third wave. Since wave structures in recent months tend to become complex and take only a corrective form, I expect the formation of at least a three-wave upward structure, and beyond that, we will see. This scenario implies an upward move of the euro by at least 150 points. However, given the current market activity, it may take a long time to cover these 150 points. If the instrument drops below the low of the presumed wave e, the wave structure of the trend beginning September 17 will become unreadable. It will remain corrective, but several possible internal wave layouts could be distinguished.

I believe the news background for the euro is not dangerous, so strengthening of the currency is possible. Moreover, the global wave structure also suggests a potential upward move. If the euro cannot gain even 150 points, its outlook will worsen significantly across all timeframes.

General Conclusions

Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to form an upward trend segment. The market has paused in recent months, but the policies of Donald Trump and the Fed remain significant factors for potential future weakness of the U.S. dollar. The targets for the current trend segment may extend up to the 25th figure. The upward wave set may continue to form. I expect the third wave of this set to begin from the current positions, which could be either wave c or 3. At present, I remain long with targets around 1.1740, and the upward turn of the MACD provides mild confirmation of these expectations.

On smaller timeframes, the entire upward trend segment is visible. The wave structure is non-standard, as corrective waves vary in size. For example, the larger wave 2 is smaller than the internal wave 2 within wave 3. However, this is not unusual. Remember that it is better to focus on clear structures on the chart rather than strictly following every wave. Currently, the upward structure is clear.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often indicate change.
2. If you are not confident about what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter.
3. No one can be 100% sure of the market direction—always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.