The GBP/USD currency pair maintains a downward trend on the 4-hour timeframe. In recent weeks, the British pound has depreciated by 400 pips, but even such a sharp decline is a correction. Yes, a strong correction. Yes, unexpectedly strong. However, it is worth noting that the majority of macroeconomic reports from Great Britain in February failed, which added additional downward momentum to the British currency. The market is confident that at the next meeting, the Bank of England will implement a new easing of monetary policy, thus outpacing the Federal Reserve in terms of rate cuts. Additionally, expectations of a US and Israeli attack on Iran have created challenges for all risk currencies.
The new week may well begin with another decline, but we want to draw traders' attention to the following: the market's reaction on Monday to the war in Iran could be completely unpredictable. The market will once again be trading on emotions, and emotions are not the best companions in the currency market. However, on Monday, attention may shift to the macroeconomic backdrop. On that day, the important ISM Manufacturing Index will be published in the US, which, at the end of January 2026, exceeded the level of 50.0 for the first time since January 2025. It is expected that the index will decline for February, similar to what happened in 2025.
On Wednesday, another ISM index—this time for the services sector—will be released. The US services sector is doing quite well, so this report is unlikely to provoke a drop in the dollar. However, any value below forecasts could do so, even if the index itself remains above the "waterline" of 50.0.
The first week of the new month also marks the publication of labor market and unemployment reports in the US. We would not pay much attention to the ADP report as it has completely lost touch with reality. Recall that last month, according to the ADP report, 22,000 jobs were created, while the Non-Farm Payrolls report showed 130,000 jobs created. However, we would also approach the Non-Farm Payrolls report cautiously. Over the past six months, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics has revised previous months' data downward almost every month. The culmination of these revisions was the data for the entirety of 2025. It turned out that the total for last year was 400,000 below the previously anticipated figure. As a result, the American economy created an unrealistic 181,000 jobs in the first year of Trump's presidency—about the same average created each month under Joe Biden.
Thus, firstly, the January figure could be revised downward. Secondly, the February figure could be much lower than 130,000. Recall that a normal Non-Farm figure is 150,000 to 200,000, and any figure below this is considered weak. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.3%.
The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days is 82 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is considered "average." On Monday, March 2, we expect movement within the range between 1.3401 and 1.3565. The upper channel of the linear regression is directed upwards, indicating a trend recovery. The CCI indicator has entered oversold territory, signaling a possible end to the correction.
The GBP/USD currency pair is on track to continue the upward trend of 2025, and its long-term prospects remain unchanged. Donald Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the US economy, so we do not anticipate growth in the American currency in 2026. Even its status as a "reserve currency" no longer plays a crucial role for traders. Therefore, long positions with targets of 1.3916 and above remain relevant when the price is positioned above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average line, small short positions can be considered with targets of 1.3428 and 1.3401 based on technical (correction) grounds. From time to time, the American currency demonstrates corrections (on a global scale), but for a trend growth, it needs global positive factors.
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