On Monday, the EUR/USD pair consolidated below the 38.2% retracement level at 1.1564 and then also rebounded from this level. Thus, the decline in the quotes may continue toward the next Fibonacci level of 50.0% at 1.1519. A rebound from this level would favor the euro and some growth toward 1.1564. Consolidation below 1.1519 would increase the likelihood of a further decline toward the next Fibonacci level of 61.8% at 1.1473.
The wave structure on the hourly chart has changed to "bearish." The latest completed upward wave failed to break the previous peak, while the latest downward wave broke the previous low. Geopolitical conditions remain consistently negative and have every chance of worsening in the near future. The market expects the FOMC to tighten monetary policy. These two factors have brought bearish traders back to the market.
There was no significant news background on Monday, but bearish traders continued to sell in anticipation of an FOMC interest-rate hike on Wednesday evening. The US dollar has continued to rise for several days despite the contradictory and lackluster US inflation report released last Friday. Traders are currently almost 100% certain that the Fed will tighten monetary policy on Wednesday evening, so the current rise in the dollar can only be attributed to this expectation. However, I would like to warn traders that after the policy tightening is announced, the market may begin taking profits on long dollar positions. This could become a classic case of "buy the rumor, sell the fact." In my view, the dollar cannot rise first on expectations of a rate hike and then rise further after the rate hike itself. Therefore, if the Fed raises the rate by 0.25%, this could cause the dollar to decline. If the rate remains unchanged, this could trigger a collapse in the US currency.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 61.8% retracement level at 1.1649, reversed in favor of the US dollar, and declined to the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1526. A rebound from this level would favor the euro and some growth toward 1.1649. Consolidation below 1.1526 would increase the chances of a continued decline toward the next retracement level of 23.6% at 1.1449. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any of the indicators.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
During the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 4,968 Long positions and opened 12,723 Short positions. During the seven weeks in February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage disappeared because of the war in Iran, while over the last twenty-four weeks, the situation has become more balanced amid market hopes for an end to the conflict. The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 198,000, while the number of Short positions stands at 241,000. The bears remain in the lead, but their advantage is narrowing.
Overall, over the long term, large market players continue to show strong interest in the euro. Of course, events of various kinds around the world, which have been plentiful in recent years, affect investor sentiment. In particular, the market is currently keeping a close eye on the situation in the Middle East, where the war repeatedly appears to end and then starts again. However, geopolitics no longer determines the fate of the dollar on its own.
News Calendar for the US and European Union:
On September 15, the economic calendar contains three entries, none of which are of any interest. The impact of the economic background on market sentiment on Tuesday will be weak or absent.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
Buying the pair is possible today if there is a rebound from 1.1519 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1564. Sell trades were possible after consolidation below 1.1621 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1551. The target was reached. New sell trades are possible after a close below 1.1564, with targets at 1.1519 and 1.1473. These trades can be kept open.
The Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.1325 to 1.1712 on the hourly chart and from 1.1849 to 1.1325 on the 4-hour chart.
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