Analytical Reviews

Forexmart's analytical reviews provide up-to-date technical information about the financial market. These reports range from stock trends, to financial forecasts, to global economy reports, and political news that impact the market.

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Hrubý dluh Brazílie v únoru dosáhl 76,2 % HDP kvůli vysokým nákladům na úroky

Veřejný sektor Brazílie zaznamenal v únoru vzestup hrubého dluhu z předchozího měsíce, jak ukázala data centrální banky v úterý, a to kvůli vysokým nákladům na úroky.

Dluh vzrostl na 76,2 % hrubého domácího produktu (HDP), což je nárůst z 75,7 % v lednu, v souladu s projekcemi ekonomů v průzkumu Reuters.

Podle metodologie používané Mezinárodním měnovým fondem (MMF) vzrostl tento poměr na 88,7 % HDP z 87,1 %, protože MMF zahrnuje všechny vládní dluhopisy držené centrální bankou, zatímco brazilská centrální banka zahrnuje pouze ty prodávané na trhu v repo operacích.

Podle centrální banky nárůst hrubého dluhu – klíčového ukazatele solventnosti země – byl především důsledkem úrokových plateb během měsíce.

Brazílie čelí vysokým nákladům na obsluhu dluhu uprostřed agresivního cyklu zvyšování úrokových sazeb. Od září zvýšili tvůrci politiky úrokové sazby o 375 bazických bodů na 14,25 %.

Veřejný sektor vykázal primární deficit, který nebere v úvahu úrokové platby, ve výši 18,973 miliardy reais (3,23 miliardy dolarů) v únoru, což bylo méně než 31,5 miliardy reais, které ekonomové očekávali v průzkumu Reuters.

Výsledek byl podpořen přebytkem 9,244 miliardy reais od regionálních vlád a 299 miliony reais od státních podniků.

Market dupes sellers
05:02 2025-07-10 UTC--5

The split within the Federal Reserve, NVIDIA's successes, and a successful auction of 10-year US Treasury bonds allowed the S&P 500 to ignore the tariff chaos. Donald Trump announced tariffs on copper starting August 1 and sent additional letters regarding tariff rates on imports. Nevertheless, the broad stock index surged upwards. Investors once again bought into the dip.

One of the reasons the FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) phenomenon has returned to the financial markets is the resilience of the US economy to the tariffs already imposed by the White House. Inflation isn't speeding up. Some FOMC members believe the trend will remain downward. If there are any spikes, they will be temporary. Two officials are ready to vote for a rate cut in July. Expectations for monetary stimulus are supporting the S&P 500.

Moreover, the broad stock index has its leaders to follow. For the first time in history, the market capitalization of a single company has exceeded $4 trillion. That company is NVIDIA. Its stock has risen by 20% since the beginning of the year and by over 1000% since 2023. This tech giant now accounts for about 7.5% of the S&P 500 market capitalization, approaching a record high.

Performance of NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Apple stocks

The broad stock index was also supported by a successful $39 billion auction of 10-year Treasury bonds. The yield of 4.362% was below expectations, indicating strong demand. At the same time, the share of primary dealers dropped to 10.9%, compared to the average of 12% over the past six auctions. The decrease in bond yields positively impacts the S&P 500, as it reduces companies' costs.

The resilience of the economy, slowing inflation, and positive corporate earnings reports suggest that the rally in US stocks is likely to continue. Furthermore, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs have raised their forecasts, while BNP Paribas claims that trading advisors and volatility-related funds are ready to invest $20 billion in the S&P 500 within a week. The neutral positioning of these investor categories suggests that the broad stock index will continue its upward movement.

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At the same time, Northlight Asset Management warns that the final impact of tariffs on the US economy and corporate profits from American issuers has yet to be seen. There have been many delays and cancellations of import tariffs. It will take time for them to fully manifest. Therefore, investors need to be cautious.

Technically, on the daily chart of the S&P 500, what was supposed to happen has happened. A short-term pullback to the downward trend allowed the "bulls" to buy the dip. Breaking the record high near the 6,290 level will allow the buildup of long positions formed at 6,051. Target levels of 6,325 and 6,450 remain in play.

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Foreign exchange is highly speculative and complex in nature, and may not be suitable for all investors. Forex trading may result in a substantial gain or loss. Therefore, it is not advisable to invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before using the services offered by ForexMart, please acknowledge the risks associated with forex trading. Seek independent financial advice if necessary. Please note that neither past performance nor forecasts are reliable indicators of future results.