Analysis EUR/USD 5M

The EUR/USD currency pair again showed no willingness to move on Tuesday, and the macroeconomic backdrop was virtually absent. As a result, the technical picture did not change during the day. The pair remains between the Ichimoku lines, preserving a downward tilt despite the ascending trendline. Recall that until price closes above Senkou Span B, the downward trend is not complete. Volatility is extremely weak right now; there were no important events in the first three days of the week, and none are scheduled, so the market is essentially standing still, resting and waiting for truly important information that starts arriving tomorrow. On Thursday the European Central Bank will hold its sixth meeting of the year, at which it is quite likely to raise key rates by 25 bp. We do not believe ECB action has already been fully priced in, because in recent weeks the euro has fallen more often than it has risen. Equally important is what Christine Lagarde will say at the press conference: if she signals further tightening, the euro would gain extra strength. At the same time, traders should remember that even headline events can provoke a weak market reaction at present.

Technically, the pair has broken the descending trendline, which suggests the downtrend may be over, but Senkou Span B has not been cleared, so dollar strength could theoretically resume. This week the dollar's fate will again largely hinge on the CPI report due Friday. For the third consecutive week, the dollar's trajectory will be decided on the last trading day of the week.

On the 5-minute TF on Tuesday, price produced one sell signal: during the European session, price bounced slightly from Senkou Span B and then fell roughly 15 pips. The critical line has not been reached.

COT report

The latest COT (Sept 1) shows non-commercial traders' net position turned bearish and fell significantly in 2026 due to geopolitical events. Traders have trimmed euro exposure in favor of the dollar over the past six months. Trump's policy has not changed, but the dollar acted for a time as the "reserve currency."

However, we still see no fundamental reasons for sustained dollar strength. The Middle East war made the dollar temporarily super-attractive, but once that factor expires, everything will return to normal. And the expiration date could have already passed. In the long term, the euro could fall toward 1.08 (trendline), but the uptrend remains intact. And in recent months of dollar growth, the pair has not moved too close to this line.

The red and blue COT lines indicate approximate parity between bulls and bears. During the last reporting week, non-commercial longs rose by 4,500 while shorts fell by 6,900, so the net position increased by 11,400 contracts.

Analysis EUR/USD 1H

On the hourly TF, EUR/USD may begin a new upward trend. The Middle East situation remains tense but is not enough on its own to force a strong dollar rally. Kevin Warsh's remarks and the annual Nonfarm Payrolls gave the dollar some support, but we see no strong grounds for optimism about the US currency. A clear break above Senkou Span B would open the way up for the euro.

For September 9 we highlight trading levels: 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362–1.1368, 1.1461–1.1473, 1.1536–1.1542, 1.1585, 1.1657–1.1665, 1.1750–1.1760, 1.1786, 1.1830–1.1837, and the Ichimoku lines Senkou Span B (1.1639) and Kijun-sen (1.1613). Ichimoku lines may shift intraday and should be considered when taking signals. Move Stop Loss to breakeven if price moves 15 pips in the favorable direction to protect against false signals.

The macro calendar is empty in the EU and US on Wednesday, so volatility may again be extremely low and trend moves absent.

Trading recommendations:

Today, traders can consider short positions with targets of 1.1613 and 1.1585 if the price bounces off the Senkou Span B line. Consolidation above the Senkou Span B line will allow opening long positions with targets of 1.1657-1.1665 and 1.1750-1.1760. We do not expect strong movements again today.

Explanations for Illustrations:

Support and resistance price levels are thick red lines where movement may conclude. They are not sources of trading signals.

The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.

Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price has previously rebounded. They are sources of trading signals.

Yellow lines indicate trend lines, trending channels, and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on COT charts shows the size of the net position of each category of traders.