Americká centrální banka dnes pravděpodobně ponechá úrokové sazby beze změny, protože její představitelé zvažují známky ochlazující se ekonomiky a zároveň i rizika vyšší inflace plynoucí z nově zavedených cel a eskalujícího konfliktu mezi Izraelem a Íránem.
Střely mezi oběma zeměmi létaly už šestý den v řadě, prezident Donald Trump naznačil možnost americké účasti a íránský nejvyšší vůdce ajatolláh Alí Chameneí před tím varoval. Navzdory napětí vzrostla cena ropy zatím jen o 10 % na zhruba 77 dolarů za barel – daleko od vrcholu 120 dolarů po ruské invazi na Ukrajinu v roce 2022, která tehdy ovlivnila celý komoditní trh a postoj Fedu k sazbám.
Podle Goldman Sachs by ceny ropy měly v příštích měsících zůstat stabilní, ale v extrémních scénářích, kdy by došlo k dlouhodobému přerušení těžby nebo dopravy v regionu, by mohly přesáhnout i 100 dolarů za barel.
Připomínkou je ropný šok ze 70. let, který tehdy odstartoval výrazný růst inflace v USA. I když jsou dnes Spojené státy čistým vývozcem ropy, globální cenový šok by mohl znovu zvýšit volatilitu a ztížit rozhodování Fedu. Od prosince drží banka základní sazbu v pásmu 4,25–4,50 % a od té doby čelí čím dál méně přehlednému výhledu, zejména po návratu Donalda Trumpa k moci a jeho rychlém obratu v obchodní politice.
The GBP/USD currency pair also showed strong upward movement on Wednesday, driven by geopolitical events. Last night, it was announced that Iran and the U.S. agreed to a two-week ceasefire, during which negotiations will continue to lay the groundwork for a long-term peace. The next day, the ceasefire was violated, but it is still unclear by whom. Nevertheless, both Iran and the U.S., as well as Israel, conducted missile launches. Thus, it is currently unclear whether a ceasefire even exists or remains only in Donald Trump's imagination. These are the questions the market will need to grapple with in the near future. If there is no ceasefire, the GBP/USD pair could quickly return to its starting positions around the level of 1.3250. If a ceasefire has indeed been achieved, and Wednesday's events were merely a regrettable misunderstanding, the rise of the British currency will continue. The macroeconomic backdrop still has no influence on the currency pair's movements.
From a technical standpoint, a new upward trend is forming, but its fate depends solely on geopolitics. Currently, the British currency is rising, recovering all of its losses from the past two months. However, this growth is fragile; the slightest breeze could send the pair crashing downward again.
On the 5-minute time frame on Wednesday, all the most interesting trading signals were generated during the Asian trading session. First, the pair broke through the Senkou Span B line, then through the area of 1.3369-1.3377. Traders could capitalize on these two signals, as by the start of the American trading session, the pair reached the area of 1.3465-1.3480. A bounce from this area allowed traders to open short positions, which also turned out to be profitable by Wednesday
COT reports for the British pound show that, in recent years, commercial traders' sentiment has been constantly changing. The red and blue lines indicating the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders frequently cross each other and are often near the zero mark. Currently, the lines are diverging, and non-commercial traders are still dominating with... sales. However, given the events in the Middle East, it is no surprise that demand for risk currencies is declining while demand for the dollar is rising.
In the long term, the dollar continues to decline due to Donald Trump's policies, as shown in the weekly time frame (illustration above). The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time. However, geopolitical factors are now the priority, providing strong support for the U.S. currency. According to the latest COT report (dated March 31), the "Non-commercial" group opened 4,800 BUY contracts and closed 900 SELL contracts. As a result, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 5,700 contracts over the week.
On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD pair has begun to form a new upward trend, which could also be canceled at any moment. The market continues to closely monitor events in the Middle East, which are driving 90% of market movements. If there is no geopolitical news, the market prefers to wait for it in a calm trading mode.
For April 9, we highlight the following important levels: 1.3096-1.3115, 1.3179-1.3187, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3465-1.3480, 1.3533-1.3548, 1.3615, 1.3671-1.3681, 1.3751-1.3763. The Senkou Span B line (1.3319) and the Kijun-sen line (1.3261) may also serve as signals. It is recommended to set the stop-loss order to breakeven when the price moves in the right direction by 20 pips. The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals.
On Thursday, no significant events are scheduled in the UK, while in the U.S., the core PCE price index for February and the third estimate of fourth-quarter GDP will be published. Recall that the first estimate showed growth of 1.4%, while the second showed growth of 0.7%. If the third estimate proves to be even lower, the pair may continue to rise.
Today, traders can remain in short positions targeting 1.3369-1.3377, as the price has failed to break through the area of 1.3465-1.3480. Long positions can be opened in the case of a bounce from the area of 1.3369-1.3377 or from the Ichimoku indicator lines.
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