Donald Trump categorically rejected Tehran's claims for compensation for five months of hostilities and launched a large-scale counterclaim. The US president demanded that Iranian authorities pay compensation to the families of all American service members killed or wounded by roadside bombs, the attack on the destroyer USS Cole, and other combat engagements. Washington's counterclaims also include payments to the families of hundreds of thousands of Iranian protesters killed over the past 50 years, including 52,000 victims in the last five months. Trump has officially instructed American diplomats to firmly record these claims as a non-negotiable condition of any future talks with Tehran.
Between NFP, CPI, and PPI
High uncertainty around a US–Iran deal to resume shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is increasing market tensions. Amid another leg up in oil prices and rising inflation concerns, the yield on 10?year US Treasury notes climbed to 4.68%, a monthly high. Although a fresh weak jobs report signalled a cooling labour market, higher energy prices are prompting investors to price in the maintenance of elevated Fed rates for longer. Ahead of the publication of the key CPI and PPI reports, the market-implied probability of a Fed rate hike in September fell to 46% (from 64% a week earlier), while the chances of rates remaining unchanged rose to 54%.
Indeed, the Iran?Oman agreement creates the formal conditions for unblocking the Strait of Hormuz. However, Tehran's manifestly unacceptable demands to the United States significantly raise the risk of escalation, posing a threat to the S&P 500 index. Forecasts suggest that July data will show moderate consumer price growth, temporarily easing market participants' fears of an immediate Fed hike in September. If the final CPI, however, shows an acceleration, the probability of monetary policy tightening will rise again, and the euphoria that has gripped equity markets will make the S&P 500 extremely sensitive to any negative surprises.
Despite a local dip on Monday, the previous week was the market's best since April, pushing the S&P 500 to a record closing high. Weak US labor market data was taken by investors as a positive signal, lowering the likelihood of aggressive Fed action. An impressive earnings season provided the foundation for the rally. According to FactSet:
Wall Street analysts' forecasts were exceeded by 29%, which brought back FOMO (fear of missing out), pushing the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones up by more than 3% and the Nasdaq by over 5%.
Dollar, brace yourself!
Euphoric sentiment has taken hold in equity markets. However, Bank of America analysts warn that the ratio of bullish to bearish positions has risen to its highest level since 2021. With such extreme positioning, the market becomes highly sensitive to any macroeconomic or geopolitical negative shocks. Investors fear that the upcoming July inflation report in the US, combined with the still-unfolding conflict in the Middle East, could easily shatter market optimism and trigger painful profit-taking.
The US Federal Reserve is also under pressure from the White House, which is attempting to remove Lisa Cook from leadership roles on the FOMC. Private contacts between Donald Trump and Fed chair Kevin Warsh call the regulator's institutional independence into question, provoking volatility and a localized sell-off of the US dollar. On the other hand, Washington's uncompromising stance in response to Iran's demands makes a diplomatic breakthrough unlikely, and the inevitable rise in geopolitical escalation in the Middle East serves as the dollar's main lifeline, supporting demand for it as a key safe?haven asset.
11 August, 02:01 / United Kingdom / Retail sales growth in July / prev.: 3.4% / actual: 1.7% / forecast: 1.5% / GBP/USD – down
Retail sales in the UK for June rose 1.7% year?on?year, recording the weakest pace since February. Consumer activity was supported by:
However, the BRC warns of economic risks from geopolitics and the conflict with Iran. Further slowing is expected in July. If so, the British pound will come under pressure.
11 August, 03:30 / Australia / NAB business confidence index in July / prev.: -14 pts / actual: -5 pts / forecast: -6 pts / AUD/USD – down
The NAB business confidence index in Australia for June rose to -5 points amid an easing of the US?Iran conflict. Tension eased thanks to:
July expectations build in a further fall in the index. Such dynamics would put pressure on the Australian dollar.
11 August, 06:30, 08:30 / Australia / RBA interest rate decision, press conference / prev.: 4.35% / actual: 4.35% / forecast: 4.35% / AUD/USD – volatile
At its June meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash rate at 4.35% y/y. The decision was influenced by:
Continuing tight monetary policy and pro?inflation risks will support the national asset and add volatility to the Australian dollar.
11 August, 15:15 / US / Weekly ADP employment change / prev.: 16.5k / actual: 15.0k / forecast: – / USDX (6?currency USD index) – volatile
The weekly ADP private payrolls number in the US fell to 15,000 jobs, continuing the pullback from record highs. The dynamics point to a gradual normalization of hiring conditions in the private sector after a period of elevated activity. If the indicator declines further, the US dollar will come under pressure.
11 August, 17:00 / US / Existing home sales in July / prev.: 4.19 mln / actual: 4.09 mln / forecast: 4.07 mln / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down
US existing home sales for June fell 2.4% to 4.09 million, driven by fewer transactions in the South, Midwest and West. At the same time, the average house price rose to $440.6k, a one?year high amid inventory tightening to 4.6 months' supply. July forecasts assume a further slight decline in sales. Realization of this scenario would create conditions for a weaker US dollar.
11 August, 23:30 / US / API crude oil inventories / prev.: 3.296 mln bbl / actual: 2.690 mln bbl / forecast: – / Brent – volatile
In the previous weekly, report US commercial crude inventories rose to 2.690 million barrels. The increase was supported by:
If the new report shows a further rise, it would be a factor pushing Brent prices down.
12 August, 02:00 / Japan / Reuters Tankan large manufacturers sentiment index for July / prev.: 13 pts / actual: 13 pts / forecast: 14 pts / USD/JPY – down
The Reuters Tankan large manufacturers sentiment index for Japan in July stood at 13 points. The reading was supported by:
Sentiment in the non?manufacturing sector fell to 25 points due to rising costs amid geopolitics and high rates. In the October forecast, manufacturers expect the index to improve to 14 points. Meeting those expectations would support the yen.
12 August, 09:00 / Germany / Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) in July / prev.: 2.7% / actual: 2.4% / forecast: 2.8% / EUR/USD – up
The German HICP for July year?on?year is expected to accelerate to 2.8% from 2.4% a month earlier, thus significantly exceeding long?term norms. Price growth is driven by persistent pressure on energy and supply chains. If the indicator reaches new highs, it will strengthen expectations for a hawkish ECB and support the euro versus other currencies.
12 August, 09:00 / Japan / Machine tool orders in July / prev.: 37.4% / actual: 52.8% / forecast: 42.0% / USD/JPY – up
Machine tool orders in Japan for June surged 52.8% year?on?year, registering a powerful demand upswing. The strong rise was supported by:
On a monthly basis, the indicator rose 15.0%, fully offsetting the May decline. The July report is expected to show a slowdown in growth. Meeting those expectations would weaken the recovery impulse in the sector and create downward pressure on the yen.
12 August, 15:30 / Canada / Building permits (m/m) in June / prev.: -6.6% / actual: -1.7% / forecast: 1.0% / USD/CAD – down
Building permits in Canada for May fell 1.7% month?on?month. The negative dynamics were driven by:
The housing sector added 1.2% thanks to higher demand for multi?family dwellings. June forecasts assume a turnaround into positive territory. If these positive expectations are confirmed, the Canadian dollar will receive good support.
12 August, 15:30 / US / Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July / prev.: 4.2% / actual: 3.5% / forecast: 3.4% / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down US consumer inflation for June slowed to 3.5% year?on?year, marking the first decline in five months. Easing price pressure was supported by:
Core CPI also eased to 2.6%, and on a monthly basis overall prices fell 0.4%. July forecasts assume further slowing of inflation. That would reduce the likelihood of aggressive Fed moves and lead to dollar weakness.
12 August, 17:30 / US / EIA crude oil inventories / prev.: 0.007 mln bbl / actual: -1.643 mln bbl / forecast: 6.059 mln bbl / Brent – down According to the US Energy Information Administration, gasoline stocks in the US fell by 1.643 million barrels for the week ending 31 July. Forecasts for the next reading anticipate almost a fivefold increase in reserves. If that materializes, expect downward pressure on oil prices.
13 August, 02:01 / United Kingdom / RICS house price balance in July / prev.: -34% / actual: -33% / forecast: -30% / GBP/USD – up
The RICS house price balance for June in the UK stood at -33%, showing first signs of market stabilization. Improvements were supported by:
At the same time, volumes of new sales listings plunged to -23%, reflecting a noticeable drop in the sample of available properties. July expectations assume a further easing of the negative trend. Meeting those forecasts would strengthen investor confidence in a housing market recovery and support the pound.
13 August, 02:50 / Japan / Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) in July / prev.: 6.6% / actual: 7.1% / forecast: 7.4% / USD/JPY – down
Japan's CGPI for June accelerated to 7.1%, the highest since spring 2023. The main cost increases came from oil and coal prices (up 22.8%), chemical products (up 14.4%) and ICT equipment (up 14.5%). On a monthly basis, the wholesale price rise slowed to 0.4%, the weakest gain in four months. July expectations forecast further producer price inflation, which would strengthen the yen.
13 August, 09:00 / United Kingdom / GDP growth in June / prev.: 1.1% / actual: 1.3% / forecast: 0.8% / GBP/USD – down
UK GDP for May rose by 1.3%. The reading showed the strongest growth pace since July 2025, accelerating versus revised April figures. June forecasts assume slowing economic growth. Such a development would weigh on the pound.
13 August, 09:00 / United Kingdom / Trade balance in June / prev.: -7.053 bn GBP / actual: -1.044 bn GBP / forecast: -3.600 bn GBP / GBP/USD – down
The UK trade deficit for May narrowed sharply to -1.044 billion pounds, the best result since the start of the year. The external balance improvement was supported by:
Goods exports rose by 7.0%, fully offsetting lower overseas equipment purchases. June expectations assume the trade deficit will widen again. In that case the pound would come under pressure.
13 August, 09:00 / United Kingdom / Construction output in June / prev.: -1.6% / actual: -1.8% / forecast: -2.5% / GBP/USD – down
Construction output in the UK fell 1.8% year?on?year in May, marking the seventh consecutive month of decline. Negative dynamics were driven by:
On a monthly basis, the indicator fell 0.8%, though the three?month rolling sum remained up 1.6%. June forecasts assume a further downturn in the sector. In that case the pound would also weaken.
13 August, 09:00 / United Kingdom / Industrial production in June / prev.: 0.0% / actual: 1.0% / forecast: 0.2% / GBP/USD – up UK industrial production rose 1.0% in May, recovering from zero growth a month earlier. The indicator showed a positive turnaround, although slightly below initial market estimates. June forecasts assume a decline in production, which would create downside pressure for the pound.
13 August, 12:00 / Eurozone / Industrial production in June / prev.: 0.4% / actual: -1.2% / forecast: -0.9% / EUR/USD – up
Eurozone industrial production fell to -1.2% in May, returning to negative territory. The decline reflects persistent difficulties in the bloc's manufacturing sector and subdued domestic demand. June expectations assume a slowing of the contraction. Confirmation of that forecast would give the euro an upward push.
13 August, 15:30 / US / Producer Price Index (PPI) in July / prev.: 6.0% / actual: 5.5% / forecast: 4.9% / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down
The US PPI for June rose 5.5%, the slowest pace in three months. The easing wholesale inflation reflects weaker price pressure along production chains. July expectations assume further deceleration of the indicator. Such dynamics would reduce the likelihood of a hawkish Fed stance and could weaken the dollar.
13 August, 15:30 / US / Initial jobless claims (weekly) / prev.: 198k / actual: 199k / forecast: 202k / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down
Initial jobless claims in the US rose to 199,000, remaining near multi?year lows. At the same time, the market recorded:
The next release is forecast to show new claims rising to 202,000. If so, the US dollar would come under pressure.
14 August, 09:00 / Germany / Producer Price Index (PPI) in July / prev.: 5.9% / actual: 4.9% / forecast: 4.5% / EUR/USD – down
Germany's PPI for June rose 4.9% year?on?year, down from May's 5.9%. Key upward contributors included:
Partly offsetting this were price declines for livestock (-16.0%) and dairy products (-8.5%). On a monthly basis, the index fell 0.7%. July expectations assume further easing of wholesale inflation. That scenario would reduce inflationary pressure in the economy and weigh on the euro.
14 August, 12:00 / Eurozone / GDP growth in Q2 / prev.: 1.1% / actual: 0.5% / forecast: 1.0% / EUR/USD – up
Eurozone GDP growth in Q2 is expected at 1.0% year?on?year. Key drivers of the recovery could be large?scale AI technology investment and a steady level of public spending. Leading contributors included:
On a quarterly basis, the bloc's economy grew 0.4%, the strongest gain since early 2025. The upcoming report anticipates further acceleration of GDP growth. That scenario would support the euro.
14 August, 15:30 / Canada / Manufacturing sales in July (m/m) / prev.: 3.9% / actual: 1.3% / forecast: -0.1% / USD/CAD – up
Canada's manufacturing sales fell to 1.3% month?on?month in June, interrupting May's rise. The negative dynamics were driven by:
Excluding the energy segment, overall production rose 2.2%. Next period forecasts assume further declines, which would pressure the Canadian dollar.
14 August, 15:30 / US / Retail sales growth in July / prev.: 7.3% / actual: 6.7% / forecast: 6.0% / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down
US retail sales rose 6.7% year?on?year in June, slowing versus revised May growth of 7.3%. Despite the pullback, the indicator remained above long?run historical averages. July forecasts assume further slowing of retail growth. Such dynamics would weigh on the US dollar.
14 August, 17:00 / US / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index (preliminary) in August / prev.: 49.5 pts / actual: 55.2 pts / forecast: 54.0 pts / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for July was revised up to 55.2 points, the highest since February. The optimism was supported by:
At the same time, the overall index remains 11% below last year's levels due to concerns about cumulative inflation. August expectations assume an index decline and a weaker dollar.
11 August, 08:30 / Australia / Speech by RBA Governor Michele Bullock / AUD/USD
12 August, 12:00 / International Energy Agency oil market report / Brent
13 August, 03:15 / Australia / Speech by RBA Deputy Governor Christopher Kent / AUD/USD
13 August, 15:15 / US / Speech by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack / USDX
13 August, 15:40 / US / Speech by Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin / USDX
14 August, 02:30 / Australia / Speech by RBA Governor Michele Bullock / AUD/USD
Also scheduled are speeches by representatives of major central banks. Their comments typically cause FX market volatility as they can signal future rate policy intentions.
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